Related papers: Implied and Realized Volatility: A Study of Distri…

In this paper, we introduce a data-driven, single-parameter Markov diffusion model for the VIX. The volatility factor evolves in $(-1,1)$ with a uniform invariant distribution ensured by Legendre polynomials, mapped to the empirical…

We discuss recently developed methods that quantify the stability and generalizability of statistical findings under distributional changes. In many practical problems, the data is not drawn i.i.d. from the target population. For example,…

In liquid option markets, W-shaped implied volatility curves have occasionally be observed. We show that such shapes can be reproduced in a mixture of two variance-gamma models. This is in contrast to lognormal models, where at least three…

We consider an asset whose risk-neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European-style option prices and implied volatilities. Our implied…

This paper applies the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (REGARCH) model to analyze the Nikkei 225 index from 2010 to 2017, utilizing realized variance (RV) and realized range-based volatility…

This paper examines the volatility and covariance dynamics of cash and futures contracts that underlie the Optimal Hedge Ratio (OHR) across different hedging time horizons. We examine whether hedge ratios calculated over a short term…

In the paper, we characterize the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility of a basket call option at large and small strikes in a variety of settings with increasing generality. First, we obtain an asymptotic formula with an error…

Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this…

In this paper we study short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility for Inverse European options with fixed strike price. The asset price is assumed to follow a general stochastic volatility process. Using techniques of the…

Geometry constitutes a core set of intuitions present in all humans, regardless of their language or schooling [1]. Could brain's built in machinery for processing geometric information take part in uncertainty representation? For decades…

This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the…

Missing data is a common problem in finance and often requires methods to fill in the gaps, or in other words, imputation. In this work, we focused on the imputation of missing implied volatilities for FX options. Prior work has used…

Empirical studies have emphasized that the equity implied volatility is characterized by a negative skew inversely proportional to the square root of the time-to-maturity. We examine the short-time-to-maturity behavior of the implied…

We consider the pricing of derivatives written on the discretely sampled realized variance of an underlying security. In the literature, the realized variance is usually approximated by its continuous-time limit, the quadratic variation of…

Distribution shifts introduce uncertainty that undermines the robustness and generalization capabilities of machine learning models. While conventional wisdom suggests that learning causal-invariant representations enhances robustness to…

We consider a general local-stochastic volatility model and an investor with exponential utility. For a European-style contingent claim, whose payoff may depend on either a traded or non-traded asset, we derive an explicit approximation for…

Rough volatility models are continuous time stochastic volatility models where the volatility process is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter smaller than half, and have attracted much attention since a seminal…

With the availability of high frequency financial data, nonparametric estimation of volatility of an asset return process becomes feasible. A major problem is how to estimate the volatility consistently and efficiently, when the observed…

We review the dynamics of the returns of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds (LETFs) and propose a new measure of realized volatility: Shortfall from Maximum Convexity. We show that SMC has a more intuitive interpretation and provides more…

Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the…