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In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-27 Dimitris Korobilis

Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling multivariate, dependent functional data. To account for the three dominant structural features in the data--functional, time dependent, and multivariate components--we extend hierarchical dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

Bayesian nonparametric models offer a flexible and powerful framework for statistical model selection, enabling the adaptation of model complexity to the intricacies of diverse datasets. This survey intends to delve into the significance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Bahman Moraffah

Although there is a rich literature on methods for allowing the variance in a univariate regression model to vary with predictors, time and other factors, relatively little has been done in the multivariate case. Our focus is on developing…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Emily Fox , David Dunson

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-28 Weichang Yu , Lamiae Azizi , John T. Ormerod

We discuss a general Bayesian framework on modeling multidimensional function-valued processes by using a Gaussian process or a heavy-tailed process as a prior, enabling us to handle nonseparable and/or nonstationary covariance structure.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-29 Evandro Konzen , Jian Qing Shi , Zhanfeng Wang

Rating procedure is crucial in many applied fields (e.g., educational, clinical, emergency). It implies that a rater (e.g., teacher, doctor) rates a subject (e.g., student, doctor) on a rating scale. Given raters variability, several…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Giuseppe Mignemi , Ioanna Manolopoulou

Graphical models express conditional independence relationships among variables. Although methods for vector-valued data are well established, functional data graphical models remain underdeveloped. We introduce a notion of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-06 Hongxiao Zhu , Nate Strawn , David B. Dunson

Gaussian graphical models are a popular tool to learn the dependence structure in the form of a graph among variables of interest. Bayesian methods have gained in popularity in the last two decades due to their ability to simultaneously…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Yabo Niu , Debdeep Pati , Bani Mallick

Quasi-experimental research designs, such as regression discontinuity and interrupted time series, allow for causal inference in the absence of a randomized controlled trial, at the cost of additional assumptions. In this paper, we provide…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-15 Max Hinne , David Leeftink , Marcel A. J. van Gerven , Luca Ambrogioni

Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas

We develop a Bayesian graphical modeling framework for functional data for correlated multivariate random variables observed over a continuous domain. Our method leads to graphical Markov models for functional data which allows the graphs…

In this paper we consider the problem of dynamic clustering, where cluster memberships may change over time and clusters may split and merge over time, thus creating new clusters and destroying existing ones. We propose a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-24 Maria De Iorio , Stefano Favaro , Alessandra Guglielmi , Lifeng Ye

Clustering procedures typically estimate which data points are clustered together, a quantity of primary importance in many analyses. Often used as a preliminary step for dimensionality reduction or to facilitate interpretation, finding…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-06 Ryan Giordano , Runjing Liu , Nelle Varoquaux , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

Many econometric analyses involve spatio--temporal data. A considerable amount of literature has addressed spatio--temporal models, with Spatial Dynamic Panel Data (SDPD) being widely investigated and applied. In real data applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-18 Maria Lucia Parrella

Advances in sensing technology have made it possible to collect large volumes of high-dimensional time-series data. In fields like genetics and neuroscience, key questions concern whether directed relationships between variables can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Sarah E. Heaps , Ian H. Jermyn , Yujiang Wang , Darren J. Wilkinson

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias