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Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) reasoning has become a hot topic due to its great value in many practical tasks. The key to TKG reasoning is modeling the structural information and evolutional patterns of the TKGs. While great efforts have…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yuwei Du , Xinyue Liu , Wenxin Liang , Linlin Zong , Xianchao Zhang

We consider multi-class systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling several large families of neurons and study their mean field limits. As the total number of neurons goes to infinity we prove that the evolution within each…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-04 Susanne Ditlevsen , Eva Löcherbach

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Alexander Kreiss , Enno Mammen , Wolfgang Polonik

A key question in brain sciences is how to identify time-evolving functional connectivity, such as that obtained from recordings of neuronal activity over time. We wish to explain the observed phenomena in terms of latent states which, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Yiwei Gong , Susanna B. Mierau , Sinead A. Williamson

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

Continuously-worn wearable sensors enable researchers to collect copious amounts of rich bio-behavioral time series recordings of real-life activities of daily living, offering unprecedented opportunities to infer novel human behavior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Tiantian Feng , Brandon M Booth , Shrikanth Narayanan

Existence and stability properties are studied for Hawkes process, i.e. point process $S$ that has long-memory and intensity $r(t)=\lambda \big(g_0(t)+ \sum_{\tau<t, \tau \in S} h(t-\tau) \big)$. The approach to Hawkes process presented in…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-17 Dmytro Karabash

Renewal process is a point process where an inter-event time between successive renewals is an independent and identically distributed random variable. Alternating renewal process is a dichotomous process and a slight generalization of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-02 Takuma Akimoto

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Guanhua Fang , Ganggang Xu , Haochen Xu , Xuening Zhu , Yongtao Guan

We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Elchanan Mossel , Anirudh Sridhar

The Hawkes process is used to model point process data where events occur in clusters and bursts. In a standard multivariate Hawkes process, every event that occurs in a dimension has an equal impact on the process intensity. However, this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Gordon J Ross , Isabella Deutsch

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-22 Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

Abstract. Most of the real world data we encounter are asynchronous event sequence, so the last decades have been characterized by the implementation of various point process into the field of social networks,electronic medical records and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Zhi-yan Song , Jian-wei Liu , Lu-ning Zhang , Ya-nan Han

We introduce and study here a renewal process defined by means of a time-fractional relaxation equation with derivative order $\alpha(t)$ varying with time $t\geq0$. In particular, we use the operator introduced by Scarpi in the Seventies…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-28 Luisa Beghin , Lorenzo Cristofaro , Roberto Garrappa

We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes ("Quadratic" Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in E. Bacry et al. (2014), by allowing all feedback effects in the jump intensity that are…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-28 Pierre Blanc , Jonathan Donier , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

This document is focused on computing systems implemented in technologies that communicate and compute with temporal transients. Although described in general terms, implementations of spiking neural networks are of primary interest. As…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-01-20 James E. Smith

We model the dynamics of a processive or rotary molecular motor using a renewal processes, in line with the work initiated by Svoboda, Mitra and Block. We apply a functional technique to compute different types of multiple-time correlation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Jaime E. Santos , Thomas Franosch , Andrea Parmeggiani , Erwin Frey