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Related papers: Making Birth-Death Processes from Backward Fokker-…

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We propose a novel stochastic method to generate paths conditioned to start in an initial state and end in a given final state during a certain time $t_{f}$. These paths are weighted with a probability given by the overdamped Langevin…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-27 Henri Orland

For stochastic systems with discrete time delay, the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) of the one-time probability density function (PDF) does not provide a complete, self-contained probabilistic description. It explicitly involves the two-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-10-02 Sarah A. M. Loos , Sabine H. L. Klapp

Density dependence is important in the ecology and evolution of microbial and cancer cells. Typically, we can only measure net growth rates, but the underlying density-dependent mechanisms that give rise to the observed dynamics can…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-04 Linh Huynh , Jacob G. Scott , Peter J. Thomas

Langevin (stochastic differential) equations are routinely used to describe particle-laden flows. They predict Gaussian probability density functions (PDFs) of a particle's trajectory and velocity, even though experimentally observed…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2024-03-11 Daniel Domínguez-Vázquez , Gustaaf B. Jacobs , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-21 Botond Cseke , David Schnoerr , Manfred Opper , Guido Sanguinetti

Time delay is ubiquitous in many experimental and real-world situations. It is often unclear whether time delay plays a significant role in observed phenomena, and if it does, how long the time lag really is. This would be invaluable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-12-10 Robin A. Kopp , Sabine H. L. Klapp , Deepak Gupta

This paper introduces a comprehensive extension of the path integral formalism to model stochastic processes with arbitrary multiplicative noise. To do so, It\^o diffusive process is generalized by incorporating a multiplicative noise term…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-03-06 F. S. Abril-Bermúdez , C. J. Quimbay , J. E. Trinidad-Segovia , M. A Sánchez-Granero

When computing the expected value of time till extinction of a Birth and Death process, the usual textbook approach results in an extreme case of numerical ill-conditioning, which prevents us from getting accurate answers beyond the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-09 Jan Vrbik

As a result of the application of a technique of multistep processes stochastic models construction the range of models, implemented as a self-consistent differential equations, was obtained. These are partial differential equations (master…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-06-22 M. N. Gevorkyan , T. R. Velieva , A. V. Korolkova , D. S. Kulyabov , L. A. Sevastyanov

We develop an efficient sampling method by simulating Langevin dynamics with an artificial force rather than a natural force by using the gradient of the potential energy. The standard technique for sampling following the predetermined…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-09-30 M. Ohzeki , A. Ichiki

The limitations resulting from the dichtomisation of continuous outcomes have been extensively described. But the need to present results based on binary outcomes in particular in health science remains. Alternatives based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Odile Sauzet

Expectations of path integrals of killed stochastic processes play a central role in several applications across physics, chemistry, and finance. Simulation-based evaluation of these functionals is often biased and numerically expensive due…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Henrique B. N. Monteiro , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

We propose a general method to obtain approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. We rely on the general properties of birth-death processes, Keilson's theorem and the concept of Riemann sum to obtain…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-05 Aleksejus Kononovicius , Vygintas Gontis

Delays in biological systems may be used to model events for which the underlying dynamics cannot be precisely observed. Mathematical modeling of biological systems with delays is usually based on Delay Differential Equations (DDEs), a kind…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-10-08 Roberto Barbuti , Giulio Caravagna , Paolo Milazzo , Andrea Maggiolo-Schettini

In the context of Markov processes, we show a new scheme to derive dual processes and a duality function based on a boson representation. This scheme is applicable to a case in which a generator is expressed by boson creation and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Jun Ohkubo

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-29 Angelos Alexopoulos , Petros Dellaportas , Jonathan J. Forster

Many examples of exactly solvable birth and death processes, a typical stationary Markov chain, are presented together with the explicit expressions of the transition probabilities. They are derived by similarity transforming exactly…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 Ryu Sasaki

The estimation of equations from data is of interest in physics. One of the famous methods is the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy), which utilizes sparse estimation techniques to estimate equations from data. Recently, a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-07-01 Yuki Tahara , Kakutaro Fukushi , Shunta Takahashi , Kayo Kinjo , Jun Ohkubo

Many stochastic differential equations in various applications like coupled neuronal oscillators are driven by time-periodic forces. In this paper, we extend several data-driven computational tools from autonomous Fokker-Planck equation to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-26 Yao Li , Jiatong Sun

This paper is concerned with exploring the microscopic basis for the discrete versions of the standard replicator equation and the adjusted replicator equation. To this end, we introduce frequency-dependent selection -- as a result of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-19 Archan Mukhopadhyay , Sagar Chakraborty