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The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models…

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for uncertainty-aware function approximation and sequential decision-making. Unfortunately, their classical formulation does not scale gracefully to large amounts of data and modern hardware for…

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular model for spatially referenced data and allow descriptive statements, predictions at new locations, and simulation of new fields. Often a few parameters are sufficient to parameterize the covariance…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian…

Complex-valued signals are used in the modeling of many systems in engineering and science, hence being of fundamental interest. Often, random complex-valued signals are considered to be proper. A proper complex random variable or process…

We propose a method for inference in generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) and several extensions of these models. First, we extend the GLMM by allowing the distribution of the random components to be non-Gaussian, that is, assuming an…

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

Gaussian processes are a widely embraced technique for regression and classification due to their good prediction accuracy, analytical tractability and built-in capabilities for uncertainty quantification. However, they suffer from the…

Variable selection for Gaussian process models is often done using automatic relevance determination, which uses the inverse length-scale parameter of each input variable as a proxy for variable relevance. This implicitly determined…

We present a new framework for recycling independent variational approximations to Gaussian processes. The main contribution is the construction of variational ensembles given a dictionary of fitted Gaussian processes without revisiting any…

Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for…

We develop a computational procedure to estimate the covariance hyperparameters for semiparametric Gaussian process regression models with additive noise. Namely, the presented method can be used to efficiently estimate the variance of the…

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are Bayesian models that provide uncertainty estimates associated to the predictions made. They are also very flexible due to their non-parametric nature. Nevertheless, GPs suffer from poor scalability as the number…

Gaussian process training decomposes into inference of the (approximate) posterior and learning of the hyperparameters. For non-Gaussian (non-conjugate) likelihoods, two common choices for approximate inference are Expectation Propagation…

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data.…

In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then…