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Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Luc Lehéricy

This paper studies the asymptotic distribution of a constrained lasso-type estimator for denoising signals defined on the nodes of a graph, where the underlying structure encodes relationships between variables. We show that, under suitable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-24 Vladimir Pastukhov

Multi-distribution learning extends agnostic Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning to the setting in which a family of $k$ distributions, $\{D_i\}_{i\in[k]}$, is considered and a classifier's performance is measured by its error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Chicheng Zhang , Yihan Zhou

This work studies an experimental design problem where {the values of a predictor variable, denoted by $x$}, are to be determined with the goal of estimating a function $m(x)$, which is observed with noise. A linear model is fitted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-03 David Azriel

Modern machine learning classifiers often exhibit vanishing classification error on the training set. They achieve this by learning nonlinear representations of the inputs that maps the data into linearly separable classes. Motivated by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Andrea Montanari , Feng Ruan , Youngtak Sohn , Jun Yan

Motivated by models for multiway comparison data, we consider the problem of estimating a coordinate-wise isotonic function on the domain $[0, 1]^d$ from noisy observations collected on a uniform lattice, but where the design points have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Ashwin Pananjady , Richard J. Samworth

We present a new loss function that addresses the out-of-distribution (OOD) calibration problem. While many objective functions have been proposed to effectively calibrate models in-distribution, our findings show that they do not always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Dexter Neo , Stefan Winkler , Tsuhan Chen

We investigate the behavior of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator $\hat{f}_n$ for a decreasing density $f$ near the boundaries of the support of $f$. We establish the limiting distribution of $\hat{f}_n(n^{-\alpha})$, where we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Vladimir N. Kulikov , Hendrik P. Lopuhaä

The H\"usler-Reiss distribution describes the limit of the pointwise maxima of a bivariate normal distribution. This distribution is defined by a single parameter, $\lambda$. We provide asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Hank Flury , Jan Hannig , Richard Smith

Recently, we have proposed a maximum likelihood iterative algorithm for estimation of the parameters of the Nakagami-m distribution. This technique performs better than state of art estimation techniques for this distribution. This could be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-04 Rangeet Mitra , Amit Kumar Mishra , Tarun Choubisa

Two major ideas in the analysis of missing data are (a) the EM algorithm [Dempster, Laird and Rubin, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 39 (1977) 1--38] for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, and (b) the formulation of models for the joint…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-04-14 Yan Zhou , Roderick J. A. Little , John D. Kalbfleisch

We study the least squares regression function estimator over the class of real-valued functions on $[0,1]^d$ that are increasing in each coordinate. For uniformly bounded signals and with a fixed, cubic lattice design, we establish that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-01 Qiyang Han , Tengyao Wang , Sabyasachi Chatterjee , Richard J. Samworth

Optimal transport (OT) based data analysis is often faced with the issue that the underlying cost function is (partially) unknown. This paper is concerned with the derivation of distributional limits for the empirical OT value when the cost…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-05 Shayan Hundrieser , Gilles Mordant , Christoph Alexander Weitkamp , Axel Munk

This paper is concerned with nonparametric estimation of the weighted stochastic block model. We first show that the model implies a set of multilinear restrictions on the joint distribution of edge weights of certain subgraphs involving…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-10 Koen Jochmans

In this paper, we consider the nonparametric regression problem with multivariate predictors. We provide a characterization of the degrees of freedom and divergence for estimators of the unknown regression function, which are obtained as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Xi Chen , Qihang Lin , Bodhisattva Sen

This work extends Roberts et al. (1997) by considering limits of Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) applied to block IID target distributions, with corresponding block-independent proposals. The extension verifies the robustness of the optimal…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-19 Jeffrey Negrea

Transfer learning is essential when sufficient data comes from the source domain, with scarce labeled data from the target domain. We develop estimators that achieve minimax linear risk for linear regression problems under distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Qi Lei , Wei Hu , Jason D. Lee

This work collects some methodological insights for numerical solution of a "minimum-dispersion" control problem for nonlinear stochastic differential equations, a particular relaxation of the covariance steering task. The main ingredient…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-16 Roman Chertovskih , Nikolay Pogodaev , Maxim Staritsyn , A. Pedro Aguiar

Majority-vote ensembles achieve variance reduction by averaging over diverse, approximately independent base learners. When training data exhibits Markov dependence, as in time-series forecasting, reinforcement learning (RL) replay buffers,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Ibne Farabi Shihab , Sanjeda Akter , Anuj Sharma