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We present a modular approach to reinforcement learning that uses a Bayesian representation of the uncertainty over models. The approach, BOSS (Best of Sampled Set), drives exploration by sampling multiple models from the posterior and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-14 John Asmuth , Lihong Li , Michael L. Littman , Ali Nouri , David Wingate

We present a simple method to obtain optimal posterior distributions and improve the quality of Bayesian inference with reduced human and computational effort. Bayes' Theorem is reformulated in the language of statistical mechanics, wherein…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Alfred C. K. Farris

We develop a novel method of replica-exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulation, mass-scaling REMD (MSREMD) method, which improves trajectory accuracy at high temperatures, and thereby contributes to numerical stability. In addition, the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-19 Tetsuro Nagai , Takuya Takahashi

Mathematical models of real life phenomena are highly nonlinear involving multiple parameters and often exhibiting complex dynamics. Experimental data sets are typically small and noisy, rendering estimation of parameters from such data…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-05-11 Abhirup Ghosh , Samit Bhattacharyya , Somdatta Sinha , Amit Apte

Noisy-OR Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a family of probabilistic graphical models which express rich statistical dependencies in binary data. Variational inference (VI) has been the main method proposed to learn noisy-OR BNs with complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-02 Antoine Dedieu , Guangyao Zhou , Dileep George , Miguel Lazaro-Gredilla

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

The paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of coefficients of switched autoregressive linear models. We consider the case when the system's outputs are contaminated by possibly large values of measurement noise. It is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Sarah Hojjatinia , Constantino M. Lagoa , Fabrizio Dabbene

Sample efficient learning of manipulation skills poses a major challenge in robotics. While recent approaches demonstrate impressive advances in the type of task that can be addressed and the sensing modalities that can be incorporated,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Adrian Röfer , Iman Nematollahi , Tim Welschehold , Wolfram Burgard , Abhinav Valada

Representation learning is fundamental to modern machine learning, powering applications such as text retrieval and multimodal understanding. However, learning robust and generalizable representations remains challenging. While prior work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Jiaoyang Li , Jun Fang , Tianhao Gao , Xiaohui Zhang , Zhiyuan Liu , Chao Liu , Pengzhang Liu , Qixia Jiang

We propose a Bayesian approach to the problem of multi-reference alignment -- the recovery of signals from noisy, randomly shifted observations. While existing frequentist methods accurately recover the signal at arbitrarily low…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-15 Axel Janson , Joakim Andén

A common task in experimental sciences is to fit mathematical models to real-world measurements to improve understanding of natural phenomenon (reverse-engineering or inverse modeling). When complex dynamical systems are considered, such as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-18 Jean-Charles Croix , Nicolas Durrande , Mauricio Alvarez

We propose a hybrid generative model for efficient sampling of high-dimensional, multimodal probability distributions for Bayesian inference. Traditional Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis-Hastings and Langevin Monte Carlo sampling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Hoang Tran , Zezhong Zhang , Feng Bao , Dan Lu , Guannan Zhang

We propose a replica-exchange method (REM) which does not use pseudo random numbers. For this purpose, we first give a conditional probability for Gibbs sampling replica-exchange method (GSREM) based on the heat bath method. In GSREM,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-09-22 Ryo Urano , Yuko Okamoto

Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models are an essential tool for analyzing count data. However, designing efficient algorithms to sample from the posterior distribution of the target parameters remains a challenging task for this class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-10 Aldo Gardini , Fedele Greco , Carlo Trivisano

Learning to infer the conditional posterior model is a key step for robust meta-learning. This paper presents a new Bayesian meta-learning approach called Neural Variational Dropout Processes (NVDPs). NVDPs model the conditional posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Insu Jeon , Youngjin Park , Gunhee Kim

We consider the problem of designing almost optimal predictors for dynamical systems from a finite sequence of noisy observations and incomplete knowledge of the dynamics and the noise. We first discuss the properties of the optimal (Bayes)…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-07-30 Marian Anghel , Ingo Steinwart

A common problem in Machine Learning and statistics consists in detecting whether the current sample in a stream of data belongs to the same distribution as previous ones, is an isolated outlier or inaugurates a new distribution of data. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-16 Vincent Moens

Fractional diffusion equations have been an effective tool for modeling anomalous diffusion in complicated systems. However, traditional numerical methods require expensive computation cost and storage resources because of the memory effect…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-23 Xiong-bin Yan , Zhi-Qin John Xu , Zheng Ma

We review a selection of methods for performing enhanced sampling in molecular dynamics simulations. We consider methods based on collective variable biasing and on tempering, and offer both historical and contemporary perspectives. In…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-03 Cameron Abrams , Giovanni Bussi

In view of the current availability and variety of measured data, there is an increasing demand for powerful signal processing tools that can cope successfully with the associated problems that often arise when data are being analysed. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-12-16 Tomislav Stankovski , Andrea Duggento , Peter V. E. McClintock , Aneta Stefanovska