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Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

In this paper, we propose a novel method for causal inference within the framework of counterfactual and synthetic control. Matching forward the generalized synthetic control method, our instrumented principal component analysis method…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-17 Cong Wang

This paper develops a semiparametric Bayesian instrumental variable analysis method for estimating the causal effect of an endogenous variable when dealing with unobserved confounders and measurement errors with partly interval-censored…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-28 Elvis Han Cui , Xuyang Lu , Jin Zhou , Hua Zhou , Gang Li

Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants to make causal inferences from observational data. The field is currently undergoing a revolution fuelled by increasing numbers of genetic variants demonstrated to be associated with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-31 Stephen Burgess , Jack Bowden , Frank Dudbridge , Simon G Thompson

Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Gregor Steiner , Jeremie Houssineau , Mark F. J. Steel

High-dimensional linear and nonlinear models have been extensively used to identify associations between response and explanatory variables. The variable selection problem is commonly of interest in the presence of massive and complex data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-10 Vitara Pungpapong , Min Zhang , Dabao Zhang

Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) range among the most frequently used models in machine learning. However, training large, general GMMs becomes computationally prohibitive for datasets that have many data points $N$ of high-dimensionality…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-12 Sebastian Salwig , Till Kahlke , Florian Hirschberger , Dennis Forster , Jörg Lücke

Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g., measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-05 Edward H. Kennedy , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Our aim is to detect mechanistic interaction between the effects of two causal factors on a binary response, as an aid to identifying situations where the effects are mediated by a common mechanism. We propose a formalization of mechanistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-23 Carlo Berzuini , A. Philip Dawid

Deep learning is a hierarchical inference method formed by subsequent multiple layers of learning able to more efficiently describe complex relationships. In this work, Deep Gaussian Mixture Models are introduced and discussed. A Deep…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-21 Cinzia Viroli , Geoffrey J. McLachlan

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Limor Gultchin , Matt J. Kusner , Varun Kanade , Ricardo Silva

We show that the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation problem in instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) models can be equivalently formulated as a mixed integer quadratic programming problem. This enables exact…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-29 Le-Yu Chen , Sokbae Lee

The estimation of causal effects with observational data continues to be a very active research area. In recent years, researchers have developed new frameworks which use machine learning to relax classical assumptions necessary for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Jonathan Fuhr , Philipp Berens , Dominik Papies

Causal effect moderation investigates how the effect of interventions (or treatments) on outcome variables changes based on observed characteristics of individuals, known as potential effect moderators. With advances in data collection,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Soham Bakshi , Walter Dempsey , Snigdha Panigrahi

We propose a semi-partitioned Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework for analyzing longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates, within a marginal modeling paradigm. This approach addresses limitations of both aggregated and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Niloofar Ramezani , Jeffrey R. Wilson

We propose Deep Residual Mixture Models (DRMMs), a novel deep generative model architecture. Compared to other deep models, DRMMs allow more flexible conditional sampling: The model can be trained once with all variables, and then used for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Perttu Hämäläinen , Martin Trapp , Tuure Saloheimo , Arno Solin

The Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) methodology exploits panels with factor error structures to construct instruments to estimate structural time series models with endogeneity even after controlling for latent factors. We extend the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-26 Saman Banafti , Tae-Hwy Lee

We develop a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for fast parameter estimation in a new class of Dirichlet latent variable models with mixed data types. Parameter estimation via GMM has been demonstrated to have computational and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Shiwen Zhao , Barbara E. Engelhardt , Sayan Mukherjee , David B. Dunson

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are widely used in statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference in non-conjugate LGMs is difficult due to intractable integrals involving the Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihoods. Algorithms…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-06-06 Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Aleksandr Y. Aravkin , Michael P. Friedlander , Matthias Seeger

Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-07 Valentin Vancak , Arvid Sjölander