Related papers: Practical Statistics for Particle Physics
This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…
We propose a method to estimate the probability of new physics discovery in future high energy physics experiments. Physics simulation gives both the average numbers <Nb> of background and <Ns> of signal events. We find that the proper…
The massive data sets from today's particle physics experiments present a variety of challenges amenable to the tools developed by the statistics community. From the real-time decision of what subset of data to record on permanent storage,…
Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which…
We introduce a few of the key ideas of statistical analysis using two real-world examples to illustrate how these ideas are used in practice.
Different ways of extracting parameters of interest from combined data sets of separate experiments are investigated accounting for the systematic errors. It is shown, that the frequentist approach may yield larger $\chi^2$ values when…
This is a writeup, with some elaboration, of the talks by the two authors (a physicist and a statistician) at the first PHYSTAT Informal review on January 24, 2024. We discuss Bayesian and frequentist approaches to dealing with nuisance…
Thousands of person-years have been invested in searches for New Physics (NP), the majority of them motivated by theoretical considerations. Yet, no evidence of beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics has been found. This suggests that…
High-energy physics is primarily concerned with uncovering the laws and principles that govern nature at the fundamental level. Research in this field usually relies on probing the boundaries of established physics, an undertaking typically…
Least-squares data analysis is based on the assumption that the normal (Gaussian) distribution appropriately characterizes the likelihood, that is, the conditional probability of each measurement d, given a measured quantity y, p(d | y). On…
These lectures describe several topics in statistical data analysis as used in High Energy Physics. They focus on areas most relevant to analyses at the LHC that search for new physical phenomena, including statistical tests for discovery…
Particle physics experiments use likelihood ratio tests extensively to compare hypotheses and to construct confidence intervals. Often, the null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic is approximated by a $\chi^2$ distribution,…
Many statistical issues arise in the analysis of Particle Physics experiments. We give a brief introduction to Particle Physics, before describing the techniques used by Particle Physicists for dealing with statistical problems, and also…
Bayesian, classical, and extended maximum likelihood approaches to estimation of upper limits in experiments with small numbers of signal events are surveyed. The discussion covers only experiments whose outcomes are well described by a…
Opening Lecture at the Second Rencontres du Vietnam, October 21-28, 1995.
In high-energy physics (HEP), both the exclusion and discovery of new theories depend not only on the acquisition of high-quality experimental data but also on the rigorous application of statistical methods. These methods provide…
The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…
The so-called 'energy test' is a frequentist technique used in experimental particle physics to decide whether two samples are drawn from the same distribution. Its usage requires a good understanding of the distribution of the test…
We propose a method to estimate the probability of new physics discovery in future high energy physics experiments. Physics simulation gives both the average numbers $<N_b>$ of background and $<N_s>$ of signal events. We find that the…
Theoretical predictions of physical observables often involve extrapolations to regions that are poorly constrained by laboratory experiments and astrophysical observations. Without properly quantified theoretical errors, such model…