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This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Ari Allyn-Feuer , Ted Sanders

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Andreas Krause , Jonas Hübotter

A core part of human intelligence is the ability to work flexibly with others to achieve goals. The incorporation of artificial agents into human spaces is making increasing demands on artificial intelligence (AI) to demonstrate and…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-03-30 William J. Bingley , S. Alexander Haslam , Janet Wiles

We introduce SMGI, a structural theory of general artificial intelligence, and recast the foundational problem of learning from the optimization of hypotheses within fixed environments to the controlled evolution of the learning interface…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Aomar Osmani

As the field progresses toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), there is a pressing need for more comprehensive and insightful evaluation frameworks that go beyond aggregate performance metrics. This paper introduces a unified rating…

The ultimate goal of artificial intelligence (AI) is to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Embodied Artificial Intelligence (EAI), which involves intelligent systems with physical presence and real-time interaction with the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Jinhao Jiang , Changlin Chen , Shile Feng , Wanru Geng , Zesheng Zhou , Ni Wang , Shuai Li , Feng-Qi Cui , Erbao Dong

Recently, a lot of attention has been given to undesired consequences of Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as unfair bias leading to discrimination, or the lack of explanations of the results of AI systems. There are several important…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-12-23 Richard Benjamins , Alberto Barbado , Daniel Sierra

Rational agents are usually built to maximize rewards. However, AGI agents can find undesirable ways of maximizing any prior reward function. Therefore value learning is crucial for safe AGI. We assume that generalized states of the world…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-08-06 Alexey Potapov , Sergey Rodionov

A recent paper (van Rooij et al. 2024) claims to have proved that achieving human-like intelligence using learning from data is intractable in a complexity-theoretic sense. We point out that the proof relies on an unjustified assumption…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Michael Guerzhoy

This study demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Mark Fisher , John Severini

Recent studies of the applications of conversational AI tools, such as chatbots powered by large language models, to complex real-world knowledge work have shown limitations related to reasoning and multi-step problem solving. Specifically,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Nova Spivack , Sam Douglas , Michelle Crames , Tim Connors

Large-scale Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) models, including Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT/GPT-4, have achieved unprecedented success in a variety of general domain tasks. Yet, when applied directly to specialized…

Machine common sense remains a broad, potentially unbounded problem in artificial intelligence (AI). There is a wide range of strategies that can be employed to make progress on this challenge. This article deals with the aspects of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Alexander Gavrilenko , Katerina Morozova

Artificial intelligence (AI) represents a technological upheaval with the potential to change human society. Because of its transformative potential, AI is increasingly becoming subject to regulatory initiatives at the global level. Yet, so…

General Economics · Economics 2023-05-22 Jonas Tallberg , Eva Erman , Markus Furendal , Johannes Geith , Mark Klamberg , Magnus Lundgren

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) systems suggests that artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems may soon arrive. Many researchers are concerned that AIs and AGIs will harm humans via intentional misuse (AI-misuse)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Catalin Mitelut , Ben Smith , Peter Vamplew

The emergence of increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) systems have sparked intense debate among researchers, policymakers, and the public due to their potential to surpass human intelligence and capabilities in all…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-11-13 Mehmet S. Ismail

One approach to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) is through the emergence of complex structures and dynamic properties arising from decentralized networks of interacting artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Understanding the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-06-20 Anton Kolonin , Ben Goertzel , Deborah Duong , Matt Ikle

Artificial Intelligence has made remarkable advancements in recent years, primarily driven by increasingly large deep learning models. However, achieving true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) demands fundamentally new architectures…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Rajeev Gupta , Suhani Gupta , Ronak Parikh , Divya Gupta , Amir Javaheri , Jairaj Singh Shaktawat

Among the many narratives of the transformative power of Generative AI is one that sees in the world a latent nation of programmers who need to wield nothing but intentions and natural language to render their ideas in software. In this…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Advait Sarkar

Current artificial intelligence systems exhibit strong performance on narrow tasks, while existing evaluation frameworks provide limited insight into generality across domains. We introduce the Artificial General Intelligence Testbed…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Matej Šprogar