Related papers: Extreme sensitivity and climate tipping points
Climate models are essential for assessing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our changing climate and the resulting increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Despite the widespread acceptance of climate models…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
The linear response to temperature changes is derived for systems with overdamped stochastic dynamics. Holding both in transient and steady state conditions, the results allow to compute nonequilibrium thermal susceptibilities from…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
In this work, we report the emergence of extreme events in a damped and driven velocity-dependent mechanical system. We observe that the extreme events emerge at multiple points. We further notice that the extreme events occur symmetrically…
Non-Hermitian systems distinguish themselves from Hermitian systems by exhibiting a phase transition point called an exceptional point (EP), which is the point at which two eigenstates coalesce under a system parameter variation. Many…
Close to equilibrium, the underlying symmetries of a system determine its possible universal behavior. Far from equilibrium, however, different universal phenomena associated with the existence of multiple non-thermal fixed points can be…
The non-Hermitian dynamics of open systems deal with how intricate coherent effects of a closed system intertwine with the impact of coupling to an environment. The system-environment dynamics can then lead to so-called exceptional points,…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
The identification of tipping points is essential for prediction of collapses or other sudden changes in complex systems. Applications include studies of ecology, thermodynamics, climatology, and epidemiology. However, detecting early signs…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
Understanding the complex interactions between land surface and atmosphere is essential to improve weather and climate predictions. Various numerical experiments have suggested that regions of strong coupling strength (hotspots) are located…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of…
Social behaviour models are increasingly integrated into climate change studies, and the significance of climate tipping points for `runaway' climate change is well recognised. However, there has been insufficient focus on tipping points in…
Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system,…
System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…