Related papers: Naive probability
Probabilities may be subjective or objective; we are concerned with both kinds of probability, and the relationship between them. The fundamental theory of objective probability is quantum mechanics: it is argued that neither Bohr's…
While a large body of work has scrutinized the meaning of conditional sentences, considerably less attention has been paid to formal models of their pragmatic use and interpretation. Here, we take a probabilistic approach to pragmatic…
Developing new ways to estimate probabilities can be valuable for science, statistics, and engineering. By considering the information content of different output patterns, recent work invoking algorithmic information theory has shown that…
Potential theory for rational approximation is reviewed by means of examples computed with the AAA algorithm.
Criticisms of so called `subjective probability' come on the one hand from those who maintain that probability in physics has only a frequentistic interpretation, and, on the other, from those who tend to `objectivise' Bayesian theory,…
Many situations in quantum theory and other areas of physics lead to quasi-probabilities which seem to be physically useful but can be negative. The interpretation of such objects is not at all clear. In this paper, we show that…
Debates about juridical proof are often framed as a conflict between probabilistic approaches and relative plausibility theory (RPT). This paper argues that this opposition rests on a level-of-analysis error. Drawing on Marr's distinction…
Probability models are only useful at explaining the uncertainty of what we do not know, and should never be used to say what we already know. Probability and statistical models are useless at discerning cause. Classical statistical…
Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical…
Expectation is a central notion in probability theory. The notion of expectation also makes sense for other notions of uncertainty. We introduce a propositional logic for reasoning about expectation, where the semantics depends on the…
This soliloquy outlines some naive philosophical arguments underlying the thesis that mathematics ought to be viewed simply as a universal set of languages, some of precise expression, and some of effective communication.
We describe an approximate rational arithmetic with round-off errors (both absolute and relative) controlled by the user. The rounding procedure is based on the continued fraction expansion of real numbers. Results of computer experiments…
In this paper we discuss quantum-like decision-making experiments using negative probabilities. We do so by showing how the two-slit experiment, in the simplified version of the Mach-Zehnder interferometer, can be described by this…
This contribution derives from a rather extensive study on the foundations of probability. We start by discussing critically the two main models of the random event in Probability Theroy and cast light over a number of incongruities. We…
Nonmonotonic reasoning is a pattern of reasoning that allows an agent to make and retract (tentative) conclusions from inconclusive evidence. This paper gives a possible-worlds interpretation of the nonmonotonic reasoning problem based on…
This paper is concerned with the estimating problem of response quantile with high dimensional covariates when response is missing at random. Some existing methods define root-n consistent estimators for the response quantile. But these…
A naive likelihood ratio (LR) estimation using the observed frequencies of events can overestimate LRs for infrequent data. One approach to avoid this problem is to use a frequency threshold and set the estimates to zero for frequencies…
We present a discrete model theory similar in structure to ordinary quantum mechanics, but based on a finite field instead of complex amplitudes. The interpretation of this theory involves only the "modal" concepts of possibility and…
In this paper we attempt to analyze the concept of quantum probability within quantum computation and quantum computational logic. While the subjectivist interpretation of quantum probability explains it as a reliable predictive tool for an…
In this paper, we consider several types of information and methods of combination associated with incomplete probabilistic systems. We discriminate between 'a priori' and evidential information. The former one is a description of the whole…