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The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

In this paper, we present a contraction-guided adaptive partitioning algorithm for improving interval-valued robust reachable set estimates in a nonlinear feedback loop with a neural network controller and disturbances. Based on an estimate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-23 Akash Harapanahalli , Saber Jafarpour , Samuel Coogan

We present a simplified derivation of the optimal checkpoint interval in Young_1974 [1]. The optimal checkpoint interval derivation in [1] is based on minimizing the total lost time as an objective-function. Lost time is a function of…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Nirmal Raj Saxena , Saurabh Hukerikar , Mikolaj Blaz , Swapna Raj

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-02 Beate Sick , Torsten Hothorn , Oliver Dürr

We introduce a pruning algorithm that provably sparsifies the parameters of a trained model in a way that approximately preserves the model's predictive accuracy. Our algorithm uses a small batch of input points to construct a data-informed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Cenk Baykal , Lucas Liebenwein , Igor Gilitschenski , Dan Feldman , Daniela Rus

The trade-off between accuracy and interpretability has long been a challenge in machine learning (ML). This tension is particularly significant for emerging interpretable-by-design methods, which aim to redesign ML algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Geyu Liang , Senne Michielssen , Salar Fattahi

All machine learning algorithms use a loss, cost, utility or reward function to encode the learning objective and oversee the learning process. This function that supervises learning is a frequently unrecognized hyperparameter that…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Mathew Mithra Noel , Arindam Banerjee , Yug Oswal , Geraldine Bessie Amali D , Venkataraman Muthiah-Nakarajan

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok

We introduce a model-agnostic procedure to construct prediction intervals for the age distribution of deaths. The age distribution of deaths is an example of constrained data, which are nonnegative and have a constrained integral. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Han Lin Shang , Steven Haberman

Modern neural networks are very powerful predictive models, but they are often incapable of recognizing when their predictions may be wrong. Closely related to this is the task of out-of-distribution detection, where a network must…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

Uncertainty quantification is an important prerequisite for the deployment of deep learning models in safety-critical areas. Yet, this hinges on the uncertainty estimates being useful to the extent the prediction intervals are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Dharmesh Tailor , Alvaro H. C. Correia , Eric Nalisnick , Christos Louizos

We propose a learning framework for calibrating predictive models to make loss-controlling prediction for exchangeable data, which extends our recently proposed conformal loss-controlling prediction for more general cases. By comparison,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Junzhi Shi , Pingping Wang , Shuo Zhuang , Hongyue Li

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Chen Xu , Yao Xie

There is growing evidence that converting targets to soft targets in supervised learning can provide considerable gains in performance. Much of this work has considered classification, converting hard zero-one values to soft labels---such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-13 Ehsan Imani , Martha White

In many contexts, customized and weighted classification scores are designed in order to evaluate the goodness of the predictions carried out by neural networks. However, there exists a discrepancy between the maximization of such scores…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Francesco Marchetti , Sabrina Guastavino , Cristina Campi , Federico Benvenuto , Michele Piana

We present a formulation of deep learning that aims at producing a large margin classifier. The notion of margin, minimum distance to a decision boundary, has served as the foundation of several theoretically profound and empirically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-05 Gamaleldin F. Elsayed , Dilip Krishnan , Hossein Mobahi , Kevin Regan , Samy Bengio

How to develop slim and accurate deep neural networks has become crucial for real- world applications, especially for those employed in embedded systems. Though previous work along this research line has shown some promising results, most…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-10-02 Xin Dong , Shangyu Chen , Sinno Jialin Pan

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing for discrete distributions. In the standard model, where we have sample access to an underlying distribution $p$, extensive research has established optimal bounds for uniformity testing,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Piotr Indyk , Ronitt Rubinfeld , Sandeep Silwal

This paper considers doing quantile regression on censored data using neural networks (NNs). This adds to the survival analysis toolkit by allowing direct prediction of the target variable, along with a distribution-free characterisation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-07 Tim Pearce , Jong-Hyeon Jeong , Yichen Jia , Jun Zhu