Related papers: Variational Inference for Sparse Gaussian Process …
Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are versatile probabilistic tools used to model various real-life phenomena: earthquakes, operations on stock markets, neuronal activity, virus propagation and many others. In this paper, we focus on…
We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the…
We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…
We investigate the nonparametric estimation problem of the density $\pi$, representing the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional system $\left(Z_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}=\left(X_t, \lambda_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}$. In this system, $X$…
We present a theoretically grounded Gaussian process framework that leverages neural feature maps to construct expressive kernels. We show that the learned feature map can be interpreted as an optimal low-rank approximation to a Gram matrix…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…
Learning the latent network structure from large scale multivariate point process data is an important task in a wide range of scientific and business applications. For instance, we might wish to estimate the neuronal functional…
Recently nonparametric functional model with functional responses has been proposed within the functional reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (fRKHS) framework. Motivated by its superior performance and also its limitations, we propose a…
We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…
Large-scale modern data often involves estimation and testing for high-dimensional unknown parameters. It is desirable to identify the sparse signals, ``the needles in the haystack'', with accuracy and false discovery control. However, the…
Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we…
While much research effort has been dedicated to scaling up sparse Gaussian process (GP) models based on inducing variables for big data, little attention is afforded to the other less explored class of low-rank GP approximations that…
We propose a pointwise inference algorithm for high-dimensional linear models with time-varying coefficients. The method is based on a novel combination of the nonparametric kernel smoothing technique and a Lasso bias-corrected ridge…
In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…
We define a numerical method that provides a non-parametric estimation of the kernel shape in symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes. This method relies on second order statistical properties of Hawkes processes that relate the covariance…
This paper addresses nonparametric estimation of nonlinear multivariate Hawkes processes, where the interaction functions are assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Motivated by applications in neuroscience, the model…
Multi-task learning models using Gaussian processes (GP) have been developed and successfully applied in various applications. The main difficulty with this approach is the computational cost of inference using the union of examples from…