Related papers: How big should a Stress Shock be?
Statistical analyses of the measurements of the Hubble-Lema\^itre constant $H_0$ (163 measurements between 1976 and 2019) show that the statistical error bars associated with the observed parameter measurements have been underestimated --…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…
A variant of the well-known Chebyshev inequality for scalar random variables can be formulated in the case where the mean and variance are estimated from samples. In this paper we present a generalization of this result to multiple…
X-ray observations of merging clusters provide many examples of bow shocks leading merging subclusters. While the Mach number of a shock can be estimated from the observed density jump using Rankine-Hugoniot condition, it reflects only the…
Aggregate shocks affect most households' and firms' decisions. Using three stylized models we show that inference based on cross-sectional data alone generally fails to correctly account for decision making of rational agents facing…
A numerical validation of the stress-jump coupling conditions for Stokes-Darcy flow in two dimensions is presented, addressing a gap that has remained since their introduction by Angot et al.. These conditions, formulated for arbitrary flow…
Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in…
The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions…
Motivated by a desire to understand quantum fluctuation energy densities and stress within a spatially varying dielectric medium, we examine the vacuum expectation value for the stress tensor of a scalar field with arbitrary conformal…
We propose a principled Bayesian method for quantifying tension between correlated datasets with wide uninformative parameter priors. This is achieved by extending the Suspiciousness statistic, which is insensitive to priors. Our method…
Understanding and predicting how individuals perform in high-pressure situations is of importance in designing and managing workplaces, but also in other areas of society such as disaster management or professional sports. For simple effort…
For the family of multivariate probability distributions variously denoted as unified skew-normal, closed skew-normal and other names, a number of properties are already known, but many others are not, even some basic ones. The present…
In observational studies of discrimination, the most common statistical approaches consider either the rate at which decisions are made (benchmark tests) or the success rate of those decisions (outcome tests). Both tests, however, have…
Linear models with additive unknown-but-bounded input disturbances are extensively used to model uncertainty in robust control systems design. Typically, the disturbance set is either assumed to be known a priori or estimated from data…
We demonstrate that the spatial correlations of microscopic stresses in 2D model colloidal gels obtained in computer simulations can be quantitatively described by the predictions of a theory for emergent elasticity of pre-stressed solids…
We identify the critical deviation scale governing Bayesian evidence accumulation in regular parametric testing. Under integrated Bayes risk with zero-one loss, the risk-optimal rejection boundary lies in a moderate deviation regime, with a…
In this paper, I present the calculation of the third and fourth moments of both the distribution function of the large--scale density and the large--scale divergence of the velocity field, $\theta$. These calculations are made by the mean…
We study two types of intrinsic uncertainties, statistical errors and system size effects, in estimating shear viscosity via equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations and compare them with the corresponding uncertainties in evaluating the…
A key feature of a sequential study is that the actual sample size is a random variable that typically depends on the outcomes collected. While hypothesis testing theory for sequential designs is well established, parameter and precision…
Standardness is a popular assumption in the literature on set estimation. It also appears in statistical approaches to topological data analysis, where it is common to assume that the data were sampled from a probability measure that…