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This paper examines learning the optimal filtering policy, known as the Kalman gain, for a linear system with unknown noise covariance matrices using noisy output data. The learning problem is formulated as a stochastic policy optimization…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-27 Shahriar Talebi , Amirhossein Taghvaei , Mehran Mesbahi

State estimation in stochastic dynamical systems with noisy measurements is a challenge. While the Kalman filter is optimal for linear systems with independent Gaussian white noise, real-world conditions often deviate from these…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-12 Hassan Mortada , Cyril Falcon , Yanis Kahil , Mathéo Clavaud , Jean-Philippe Michel

Kalman filter is a key tool for time-series forecasting and analysis. We show that the dependence of a prediction of Kalman filter on the past is decaying exponentially, whenever the process noise is non-degenerate. Therefore, Kalman filter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Mark Kozdoba , Jakub Marecek , Tigran Tchrakian , Shie Mannor

Here we revisit the classic problem of linear quadratic estimation, i.e. estimating the trajectory of a linear dynamical system from noisy measurements. The celebrated Kalman filter gives an optimal estimator when the measurement noise is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-12 Sitan Chen , Frederic Koehler , Ankur Moitra , Morris Yau

This paper presents an adaptive Kalman filter for a linear dynamic system perturbed by an additive disturbance. The objective is to estimate both of the state and the unknown disturbance concurrently, while learning the disturbance as a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Taeyoung Lee

We consider the problem of online prediction for an unknown, non-explosive linear stochastic system. With a known system model, the optimal predictor is the celebrated Kalman filter. In the case of unknown systems, existing approaches based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Jiachen Qian , Yang Zheng

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires reasoning about the uncertainty of the environment's hidden state. However, most reinforcement learning architectures handle partial observability with sequence models that have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Carlos E. Luis , Alessandro G. Bottero , Julia Vinogradska , Felix Berkenkamp , Jan Peters

We propose a new recursive estimator for linear dynamical systems under Gaussian process noise and non-Gaussian measurement noise. Specifically, we develop an approximate maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator using dynamic programming and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-09 Mohammad Hussein Yoosefian Nooshabadi , Laurent Lessard

We present an efficient and practical (polynomial time) algorithm for online prediction in unknown and partially observed linear dynamical systems (LDS) under stochastic noise. When the system parameters are known, the optimal linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Paria Rashidinejad , Jiantao Jiao , Stuart Russell

There is a growing interest in using Kalman-filter models in brain modelling. In turn, it is of considerable importance to make Kalman-filters amenable for reinforcement learning. In the usual formulation of optimal control it is computed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Istvan Szita , Andras Lorincz

A novel approach for vehicle tracking using a hybrid adaptive Kalman filter is proposed. The filter utilizes recurrent neural networks to learn the vehicle's geometrical and kinematic features, which are then used in a supervised learning…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Barak Or , Itzik Klein

This paper studies the state estimation problem of linear discrete-time systems with stochastic unknown inputs. The unknown input is a wide-sense stationary process while no other prior informaton needs to be known. We propose an…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-04-06 Dan Yu , Suman Chakravorty

We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-05 Michael Busch , Jeff Moehlis

The Kalman filter is a fundamental filtering algorithm that fuses noisy sensory data, a previous state estimate, and a dynamics model to produce a principled estimate of the current state. It assumes, and is optimal for, linear models and…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Beren Millidge , Alexander Tschantz , Anil Seth , Christopher Buckley

Ill-posed inverse problems are ubiquitous in applications. Under- standing of algorithms for their solution has been greatly enhanced by a deep understanding of the linear inverse problem. In the applied communities ensemble-based filtering…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Marco A. Iglesias , Kui Lin , Shuai Lu , Andrew M. Stuart

The Kalman filter combines forecasts and new observations to obtain an estimation which is optimal in the sense of a minimum average quadratic error. The Kalman filter has two main restrictions: (i) the dynamical system is assumed linear…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 D. Sornette , K. Ide

Kalman filtering is a cornerstone of estimation theory, yet learning the optimal filter under unknown and potentially singular noise covariances remains a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we revisit this problem through the lens of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-08 Larsen Bier , Shahriar Talebi

State estimation is a fundamental problem in control and signal processing, for which the Kalman Filter provides an optimal solution under linear dynamics, Gaussian noise, and known noise covariances. However, these assumptions often fail…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Vasileios Saketos , Ming Xiao

A recursive state estimation procedure is derived for a linear time varying system with both parametric uncertainties and stochastic measurement droppings. This estimator has a similar form as that of the Kalman filter with intermittent…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Tong Zhou

The Kalman(-Bucy) filter is the natural choice for the state reconstruction of disturbed, linear dynamical systems based on flawed and incomplete measurements. Taking a deterministic viewpoint this work investigates possible extensions of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Karl Kunisch , Jesper Schröder
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