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Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-27 Benjamin Kurt Miller , Alex Cole , Patrick Forré , Gilles Louppe , Christoph Weniger

The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Marko Järvenpää , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

Statistical inference more often than not involves models which are non-linear in the parameters thus leading to non-Gaussian posteriors. Many computational and analytical tools exist that can deal with non-Gaussian distributions, and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-01-20 Eileen Giesel , Robert Reischke , Björn Malte Schäfer , Dominic Chia

Recent implementations of local approximate Gaussian process models have pushed computational boundaries for non-linear, non-parametric prediction problems, particularly when deployed as emulators for computer experiments. Their flavor of…

Computation · Statistics 2015-01-06 Robert B. Gramacy , Benjamin Haaland

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-24 Rafael Izbicki , Ann B. Lee , Taylor Pospisil

The properties of black-hole and neutron-star binaries are extracted from gravitational-wave signals using Bayesian inference. This involves evaluating a multi-dimensional posterior probability function with stochastic sampling. The…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-09-29 Virginia D'Emilio , Rhys Green , Vivien Raymond

Genetic algorithms are a powerful tool in optimization for single and multi-modal functions. This paper provides an overview of their fundamentals with some analytical examples. In addition, we explore how they can be used as a parameter…

It is well-known that the posterior density of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian likelihood is also Gaussian, hence completely described by its covariance and expectation. Sampling from a Gaussian posterior may be…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Daniela Calvetti , Erkki Somersalo

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful paradigm for efficient optimization of black-box objective functions. High-dimensional BO presents a particular challenge, in part because the curse of dimensionality makes it difficult to define --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 David Eriksson , Martin Jankowiak

Bayesian statistics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have found their place in the field of Cosmology. They have become important mathematical and numerical tools, especially in parameter estimation and model comparison. In…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-07-02 Luis E. Padilla , Luis O. Tellez , Luis A. Escamilla , J. Alberto Vazquez

We apply a linear Bayesian model to seismic tomography, a high-dimensional inverse problem in geophysics. The objective is to estimate the three-dimensional structure of the earth's interior from data measured at its surface. Since this…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-11 Ran Zhang , Claudia Czado , Karin Sigloch

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential echniques cannot be…

Computation · Statistics 2013-05-29 Simon R. White , Theodore Kypraios , Simon P. Preston

Bayesian hierarchical models have been demonstrated to provide efficient algorithms for finding sparse solutions to ill-posed inverse problems. The models comprise typically a conditionally Gaussian prior model for the unknown, augmented by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Daniela Calvetti , Erkki Somersalo

Nonstationary Gaussian process models can capture complex spatially varying dependence structures in spatial datasets. However, the large number of observations in modern datasets makes fitting such models computationally intractable with…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-13 Paul G. Beckman , Christopher J. Geoga , Michael L. Stein , Mihai Anitescu

We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Aad van der Vaart , Harry van Zanten

We present an algorithm for quickly generating multiple realizations of N-body simulations to be used, for example, for cosmological parameter estimation from surveys of large-scale structure. Our algorithm uses a new method to resample the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 Michael D. Schneider , Shaun Cole , Carlos S. Frenk , Istvan Szapudi

We demonstrate a GPU-accelerated nested sampling framework for efficient high-dimensional Bayesian inference in cosmology. Using JAX-based neural emulators and likelihoods for cosmic microwave background and cosmic shear analyses, our…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-08 Toby Lovick , David Yallup , Davide Piras , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Will Handley

Machine learning models, and deep neural networks in particular, are increasingly deployed in risk-sensitive domains such as healthcare, environmental forecasting, and finance, where reliable quantification of predictive uncertainty is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Asena Karolin Özdemir , Lars H. Heyen , Arvid Weyrauch , Achim Streit , Markus Götz , Charlotte Debus