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Related papers: Real-time Prediction of Bitcoin Bubble Crashes

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Bitcoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that is gaining more popularity in recent years. Previous studies have shown that closing price alone is not enough to forecast stock market series. We introduce a new set of time series and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Stefano Sossi-Rojas , Gissel Velarde , Damian Zieba

The rapid spread of information over social media influences quantitative trading and investments. The growing popularity of speculative trading of highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks presents a fresh challenge…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Ramit Sawhney , Shivam Agarwal , Vivek Mittal , Paolo Rosso , Vikram Nanda , Sudheer Chava

Since the inception of Bitcoin in 2009, the market of cryptocurrencies has grown beyond initial expectations as daily trades exceed $10 billion. As industries become automated, the need for an automated fraud detector becomes very apparent.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Eran Kaufman , Andrey Iaremenko

In this paper we apply neural networks and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to historical records of high-risk cryptocurrency coins to train a prediction model that guesses their price. This paper's code contains Jupyter notebooks, one of which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Jacques Fleischer , Gregor von Laszewski , Carlos Theran , Yohn Jairo Parra Bautista

Financial markets are well known for their dramatic dynamics and consequences that affect much of the world's population. Consequently, much research has aimed at understanding, identifying and forecasting crashes and rebounds in financial…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-08-02 Wanfeng Yan , Reda Rebib , Ryan Woodard , Didier Sornette

Speculative bubbles exhibit common statistical signatures across many financial markets, suggesting the presence of universal underlying mechanisms. We test this hypothesis in the Iranian stock market, an economy that is highly isolated,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-16 Ali Hosseinzadeh

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of a novel method called linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) on the accuracy of intraday price movement prediction of cryptocurrencies. To do this, the 1-minute interval…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-09 Marcell T. Kurbucz , Péter Pósfay , Antal Jakovác

This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Ali Mehrban , Pegah Ahadian

The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Simone Antonelli , Vincent Davis , Harrison Rush , Anthony Potdevin , Jesse Shrader , Vikash Singh , Emanuele Rossi

This study proposes a hybrid deep learning model for forecasting the price of Bitcoin, as the digital currency is known to exhibit frequent fluctuations. The models used are the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and the Long Short-Term…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-21 Emmanuel Boadi

We exploit a recent computational framework to model and detect financial crises in stock markets, as well as shock events in cryptocurrency markets, which are characterized by a sudden or severe drop in prices. Our method manages to detect…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2021-03-25 Apostolos Chalkis , Emmanouil Christoforou , Theodore Dalamagkas , Ioannis Z. Emiris

This paper studies how to forecast daily closing price series of Bitcoin, using data on prices and volumes of prior days. Bitcoin price behaviour is still largely unexplored, presenting new opportunities. We compared our results with two…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-07 Nicola Uras , Lodovica Marchesi , Michele Marchesi , Roberto Tonelli

In recent years, Bitcoin price prediction has attracted the interest of researchers and investors. However, the accuracy of previous studies is not well enough. Machine learning and deep learning methods have been proved to have strong…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-25 Liping Yang

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-07 Mohammad Ali Labbaf Khaniki , Mohammad Manthouri

The problem of anomaly detection has been studied for a long time, and many Network Analysis techniques have been proposed as solutions. Although some results appear to be quite promising, no method is clearly to be superior to the rest. In…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-02-28 Thai Pham , Steven Lee

Accurate forecasting of Bitcoin (BTC) has always been a challenge because decentralized markets are non-linear, highly volatile, and have temporal irregularities. Existing deep learning models often struggle with interpretability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Raiz Ud Din , Saddam Hussain Khan

We construct a statistical indicator for the detection of short-term asset price bubbles based on the information content of bid and ask market quotes for plain vanilla put and call options. Our construction makes use of the martingale…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-17 Petteri Piiroinen , Lassi Roininen , Tobias Schoden , Martin Simon

Time series forecasting is a key tool in financial markets, helping to predict asset prices and guide investment decisions. In highly volatile markets, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), forecasting becomes more…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-17 Mabsur Fatin Bin Hossain , Lubna Zahan Lamia , Md Mahmudur Rahman , Md Mosaddek Khan

The bitcoin price has surged in recent years and it has also exhibited phases of rapid decay. In this paper we address the question to what extent this novel cryptocurrency market can be viewed as a classic or semi-efficient market. Novel…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-26 Josselin Garnier , Knut Solna

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors'…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-26 L. Lin , Ren R. E , D. Sornette