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Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xiaoqing Tan , Shu Yang , Wenyu Ye , Douglas E. Faries , Ilya Lipkovich , Zbigniew Kadziola

We study the probability tail properties of Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimators of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) when there is limited overlap between the covariate distributions of the treatment and control groups. Under…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Jonathan B. Hill , Saraswata Chaudhuri

Online controlled experiments play a crucial role in enabling data-driven decisions across a wide range of companies. Variance reduction is an effective technique to improve the sensitivity of experiments, achieving higher statistical power…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Hao Zhou , Kun Sun , Shaoming Li , Yangfeng Fan , Guibin Jiang , Jiaqi Zheng , Tao Li

We study the problem of estimating the mean of a distribution in high dimensions when either the samples are adversarially corrupted or the distribution is heavy-tailed. Recent developments in robust statistics have established efficient…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Samuel B. Hopkins , Jerry Li , Fred Zhang

Estimating the tail index parameter is one of the primal objectives in extreme value theory. For heavy-tailed distributions the Hill estimator is the most popular way to estimate the tail index parameter. Improving the Hill estimator was…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-05 László Németh , András Zempléni

Real-world data is laden with outlying values. The challenge for machine learning is that the learner typically has no prior knowledge of whether the feedback it receives (losses, gradients, etc.) will be heavy-tailed or not. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-16 Matthew J. Holland

Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-06-24 Fabian L. Wauthier , Michael I. Jordan

Recently, high-dimensional heterogeneous data have attracted a lot of attention and discussion. Under heterogeneity, semiparametric regression is a popular choice to model data in statistics. In this paper, we take advantages of expectile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-20 Jun Zhao , Guan'ao Yan , Yi Zhang

Motivated by two case studies using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we describe statistical methods that facilitate the analysis of tall data, with very large numbers of observations. Our focus is on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-14 Kirsty Rhodes , Rebecca Turner , Rupert Payne , Ian White

Randomized controlled trials play an important role in how Internet companies predict the impact of policy decisions and product changes. In these `digital experiments', different units (people, devices, products) respond differently to the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-21 Matt Taddy , Matt Gardner , Liyun Chen , David Draper

Datasets with extreme observations and/or heavy-tailed error distributions are commonly encountered and should be analyzed with careful consideration of these features from a statistical perspective. Small deviations from an assumed model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Meadhbh O'Neill , Kevin Burke

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Jonas F. Frederiksen , Muneya Matsui , Rasmus S. Pedersen

Randomized experiments (a.k.a. A/B tests) are a powerful tool for estimating treatment effects, to inform decisions making in business, healthcare and other applications. In many problems, the treatment has a lasting effect that evolves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Ziyang Tang , Yiheng Duan , Stephanie Zhang , Lihong Li

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

Experimentation is widely utilized for causal inference and data-driven decision-making across disciplines. In an A/B experiment, for example, an online business randomizes two different treatments (e.g., website designs) to their customers…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Wenxuan Guo , JungHo Lee , Panos Toulis

Modeling heterogeneity on heavy-tailed distributions under a regression framework is challenging, and classical statistical methodologies usually place conditions on the distribution models to facilitate the learning procedure. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Jiaxi Wang , Yanxi Hou , Xingchi Li , Tiandong Wang

Randomized experimentation (also known as A/B testing or bucket testing) is widely used in the internet industry to measure the metric impact obtained by different treatment variants. A/B tests identify the treatment variant showing the…

Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Baoluo Sun , Zhiqiang Tan

We tackle estimating sparse coefficients in a linear regression when the covariates are sampled from an $L$-subexponential random vector. This vector belongs to a class of distributions that exhibit heavier tails than Gaussian random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-07 Takeyuki Sasai

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan