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Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Metod Jazbec , Eliot Wong-Toi , Guoxuan Xia , Dan Zhang , Eric Nalisnick , Stephan Mandt

Uncertainty quantification in deep learning is crucial for safe and reliable decision-making in downstream tasks. Existing methods quantify uncertainty at the last layer or other approximations of the network which may miss some sources of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

Accurate trajectory prediction is critical for safe autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While many trajectory predictors output Gaussian distributions to represent the multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian positions,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Fatemeh Cheraghi Pouria , Mahsa Golchoubian , Katherine Driggs-Campbell

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

This paper introduces two variational formulations for a model of robust optimal transport, that is, the problem of designing optimal transport networks that are resilient to potential damages, balancing construction costs against the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Luigi De Masi , Andrea Marchese , Annalisa Massaccesi

Given (small amounts of) time-series' data from a high-dimensional, fine-grained, multiscale dynamical system, we propose a generative framework for learning an effective, lower-dimensional, coarse-grained dynamical model that is predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Sebastian Kaltenbach , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

We present a data-driven modeling strategy to overcome improperly modeled dynamics for systems exhibiting complex spatio-temporal behaviors. We propose a Deep Learning framework to resolve the differences between the true dynamics of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Maan Qraitem , Dhanushka Kularatne , Eric Forgoston , M. Ani Hsieh

Scientific Machine Learning is a new class of approaches that integrate physical knowledge and mechanistic models with data-driven techniques for uncovering governing equations of complex processes. Among the available approaches, Universal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-14 Nina Schmid , David Fernandes del Pozo , Willem Waegeman , Jan Hasenauer

We propose a novel approach for performing dynamical system identification, based upon the comparison of simulated and observed physical invariant measures. While standard methods adopt a Lagrangian perspective by directly treating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Jonah Botvinick-Greenhouse

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

A Bayesian analytics framework that precisely quantifies uncertainty offers a significant advance for financial risk management. We develop an integrated approach that consistently enhances the handling of risk in market volatility…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-19 Sharif Al Mamun , Rakib Hossain , Md. Jobayer Rahman , Malay Kumar Devnath , Farhana Afroz , Lisan Al Amin

Model-based offline reinforcement learning approaches generally rely on bounds of model error. Estimating these bounds is usually achieved through uncertainty estimation methods. In this work, we combine parametric and nonparametric methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Guy Tennenholtz , Shie Mannor

Reliable models of the thermodynamic properties of materials are critical for industrially relevant applications that require a good understanding of equilibrium phase diagrams, thermal and chemical transport, and microstructure evolution.…

Materials Science · Physics 2018-09-21 Noah H. Paulson , Elise Jennings , Marius Stan

Fair predictive algorithms hinge on both equality and trust, yet inherent uncertainty in real-world data challenges our ability to make consistent, fair, and calibrated decisions. While fairly managing predictive error has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Lucas Rosenblatt , R. Teal Witter

We discuss the Lagrangian-Eulerian framework for hydrodynamic models and provide a proof of Lipschitz dependence of solutions on initial data in path space. The paper presents a corrected version of the result in \cite{c1}.

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-12-04 Peter Constantin , Joonhyun La

We introduce a computational efficient data-driven framework suitable for quantifying the uncertainty in physical parameters and model formulation of computer models, represented by differential equations. We construct physics-informed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-01 Michail Spitieris , Ingelin Steinsland

Accurate representations of unknown and sub-grid physical processes through parameterizations (or closure) in numerical simulations with quantified uncertainty are critical for resolving the coarse-grained partial differential equations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Yongquan Qu , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Pierre Gentine

The proliferation of Deep Neural Networks has resulted in machine learning systems becoming increasingly more present in various real-world applications. Consequently, there is a growing demand for highly reliable models in many domains,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Pedro Conde , Rui L. Lopes , Cristiano Premebida

In probability density function (PDF) methods of turbulent flows, the joint PDF of several flow variables is computed by numerically integrating a system of stochastic differential equations for Lagrangian particles. A mathematically exact…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2010-06-17 J. Bakosi

Aerial manipulators (AM) exhibit particularly challenging, non-linear dynamics; the UAV and the manipulator it is carrying form a tightly coupled dynamic system, mutually impacting each other. The mathematical model describing these…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Paul Kremer , Jose Luis Sanchez-Lopez , Holger Voos
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