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Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations is a ubiquitous problem in a large number of applications, such as probabilistic weather forecasting and prediction of epidemics. Particle filters are a widely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-21 E. Calvello , J. A. Carrillo , F. Hoffmann , P. Monmarché , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

The application of neural networks in modeling dynamic systems has become prominent due to their ability to estimate complex nonlinear functions. Despite their effectiveness, neural networks face challenges in long-term predictions, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Parham Oveissi , Turibius Rozario , Ankit Goel

We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-02 Joonha Park , Edward L. Ionides

Filtering is a widely used methodology for the incorporation of observed data into time-evolving systems. It provides an online approach to state estimation inverse problems when data is acquired sequentially. The Kalman filter plays a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-27 Wonjung Lee , Damon McDougall , Andrew Stuart

Online estimation of electromechanical oscillation parameters provides essential information to prevent system instability and blackout and helps to identify event categories and locations. We formulate the problem as a state space model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-06-19 Zhe Yu , Di Shi , Zhiwei Wang , Qibing Zhang , Junhui Huang , Sen Pan

We develop a fast algorithm for Kalman Filter applied to the random walk forecast model. The key idea is an efficient representation of the estimate covariance matrix at each time-step as a weighted sum of two contributions - the process…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Arvind K. Saibaba , Eric Miller , Peter K. Kitanidis

The extended Kalman filter is perhaps the most standard tool to estimate in real time the state of a dynamical system from noisy measurements of some function of the system, with extensive practical applications (such as position tracking…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-04 Yann Ollivier

Multi-scale problems, where variables of interest evolve in different time-scales and live in different state-spaces, can be found in many fields of science. Here, we introduce a new recursive methodology for Bayesian inference that aims at…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Harold Molina-Bulla , Joaquin Miguez

In order to integrate uncertainty estimates into deep time-series modelling, Kalman Filters (KFs) (Kalman et al., 1960) have been integrated with deep learning models, however, such approaches typically rely on approximate inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-20 Philipp Becker , Harit Pandya , Gregor Gebhardt , Cheng Zhao , James Taylor , Gerhard Neumann

In this technical note, a recursive set-membership filtering algorithm for discrete-time nonlinear dynamical systems subject to unknown but bounded process and measurement noises is proposed. The nonlinear dynamics is represented in a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-29 Diganta Bhattacharjee , Kamesh Subbarao

This paper presents the construction of a particle filter, which incorporates elements inspired by genetic algorithms, in order to achieve accelerated adaptation of the estimated posterior distribution to changes in model parameters.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-15 Karol Gellert , Erik Schlögl

This paper studies the distributed state estimation in sensor network, where $m$ sensors are deployed to infer the $n$-dimensional state of a linear time-invariant (LTI) Gaussian system. By a lossless decomposition of optimal steady-state…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-22 Jiaqi Yan , Xu Yang , Yilin Mo , Keyou You

The capability of a novel Kullback-Leibler divergence method is examined herein within the Kalman filter framework to select the input-parameter-state estimation execution with the most plausible results. This identification suffers from…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-05 Marios Impraimakis

Simultaneous state and parameter estimation arises from various applicational areas but presents a major computational challenge. Most available Markov chain or sequential Monte Carlo techniques are applicable to relatively low dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Angwenyi David , Jana de Wiljes , Sebastian Reich

The unscented Kalman filter is a nonlinear estimation algorithm commonly used in navigation applications. The prediction of the mean and covariance matrix is crucial to the stable behavior of the filter. This prediction is done by…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Amit Levy , Itzik Klein

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a popular technique for performing inference in state-space models (SSMs), particularly when the dynamic process is high-dimensional. Unlike reweighting methods such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, i.e.…

The Kalman filter is an established tool for the analysis of dynamic systems with normally distributed noise, and it has been successfully applied in numerous application areas. It provides sequentially calculated estimates of the system…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-10-26 S. Eichstädt , N. Makarava , C. Elster

This paper considers the simultaneous state and unknown input estimation for continuous-discrete stochastic systems. Two types of approaches (with and without modeling of unknown inputs) which can address this issue are investigated. A…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-05-12 Peng Lu

We formulate a recursive estimation problem for multiple dynamical systems coupled through a low dimensional stochastic input, and we propose an efficient sub-optimal solution. The suggested approach is an approximation of the Kalman filter…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-26 Leonid Pogorelyuk , Clarence W. Rowley , N. Jeremy Kasdin

Accurate state estimates are required for increasingly complex systems, to enable, for example, feedback control. However, available state estimation schemes are not necessarily real-time feasible for certain large-scale systems. Therefore,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-24 S. A. N. Nouwens , M. M. Paulides , W. P. M. H. Heemels