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Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space…

Likelihood methods for measuring statistical evidence obey the likelihood principle while maintaining bounded and well-controlled frequency properties. These methods lend themselves to sequential study designs because they measure the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-07 Jeffrey D Blume , Leena Choi

Objective: Randomized controlled trial (RCT) results often inform clinical decision-making, but the highly curated populations of trials and the care provided during the trial are often not reflective of real-world practice. The objective…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-26 Guanbo Wang , Ting-Wei Ernie Liao , David Furfaro , Leo Anthony Celi , Kevin Sheng-Kai Ma

Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

We review and conceptualize recent advances in causal inference under network interference, drawing on a complex and diverse body of work that ranges from causal inference, statistical network analysis, economics, the health sciences, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Subhankar Bhadra , Michael Schweinberger

This paper shows how to use a randomized saturation experimental design to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of spillovers--one person's treatment may affect another's outcome--and one-sided non-compliance--subjects can…

We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-24 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

Simulation methods are among the most ubiquitous methodological tools in statistical science. In particular, statisticians often is simulation to explore properties of statistical functionals in models for which developed statistical theory…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-22 Tyrel Stokes , Ian Shrier , Russell Steele

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Athénaïs Gautier , David Ginsbourger , Guillaume Pirot

Marginal structural models fit via inverse probability of treatment weighting are commonly used to control for confounding when estimating causal effects from observational data. When planning a study that will be analyzed with marginal…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-16 Bonnie E. Shook-Sa , Michael G. Hudgens

We discuss the identifiability of causal estimands for generalizability and transportability analyses, both under perfect and imperfect adherence to treatment assignment. We consider a setting where the trial data contain information on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Issa J. Dahabreh , Sarah E. Robertson , Miguel A. Hernán

We describe how the target trial framework can be used to plan and report analyses that attempt to answer causal questions by combining information from multiple, diverse sources. Such analyses may involve comparisons of treatments…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Lawson Ung , Miguel A. Hernán , Issa J. Dahabreh

Randomized trials are often conducted with separate randomizations across multiple sites such as schools, voting districts, or hospitals. These sites can differ in important ways, including the site's implementation, local conditions, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-19 Lo-Hua Yuan , Avi Feller , Luke W. Miratrix

When estimating an effect of an action with a randomized or observational study, that study is often not a random sample of the desired target population. Instead, estimates from that study can be transported to the target population.…

The recently published ICH E9 addendum on estimands in clinical trials provides a framework for precisely defining the treatment effect that is to be estimated, but says little about estimation methods. Here we report analyses of a clinical…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-25 Camila Olarte Parra , Rhian M. Daniel , David Wright , Jonathan W. Bartlett

Design-based inference, also known as randomization-based or finite-population inference, provides a principled framework for trustworthy statistical inference by attributing randomness solely to the design mechanism (e.g., treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Siyu Heng , Yanxin Shen , Zijian Guo

The clustered observational study (COS) design is the observational study counterpart to the clustered randomized trial. In a COS, a treatment is assigned to intact groups, and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Ting Ye , Ted Westling , Lindsay Page , Luke Keele

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

Adaptive sample size re-estimation, early stopping, and trial re-design at interim analyses can reduce expected sample sizes in randomised trials. Cluster randomised trials, in which groups of participants are randomly allocated to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-09 Samuel I. Watson , James Martin
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