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Bayesian inference often faces a trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy. We propose an adaptive workflow that integrates rapid amortized inference with gold-standard MCMC techniques to achieve a favorable combination of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Chengkun Li , Aki Vehtari , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev , Luigi Acerbi , Marvin Schmitt

Bayesian inference is often implemented using approximations, which can yield interval estimates that are too narrow, not fully capturing the uncertainty in the posterior distribution. We address the question of how to adjust these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Tiffany Cai , Philip Greengard , Ben Goodrich , Andrew Gelman

Finite mixture models are used in statistics and other disciplines, but inference for mixture models is challenging due, in part, to the multimodality of the likelihood function and the so-called label switching problem. We propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Umberto Simola , Jessi Cisewski-Kehe , Robert L. Wolpert

The 21st century has seen an enormous growth in the development and use of approximate Bayesian methods. Such methods produce computational solutions to certain intractable statistical problems that challenge exact methods like Markov chain…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-28 Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier , Christian P. Robert

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular sampling method in applications involving intractable likelihood functions. Without evaluating the likelihood function, ABC approximates the posterior distribution by the set of accepted…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-17 Jin Zhou , Kenji Fukumizu

Bayesian methods provide an elegant framework for estimating parameter posteriors and quantification of uncertainty associated with probabilistic models. However, they often suffer from slow inference times. To address this challenge,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Piyush Tiwary , Kumar Shubham , Vivek V. Kashyap , Prathosh A. P

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-16 Jovana Mitrovic , Dino Sejdinovic , Yee Whye Teh

We derive the optimal proposal density for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (or Population Monte Carlo, PMC). The criterion for optimality is that the SMC/PMC-ABC sampler maximise the effective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-21 Justin Alsing , Benjamin D. Wandelt , Stephen M. Feeney

Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-27 Rohitash Chandra , Joshua Simmons

The past decades have seen enormous improvements in computational inference based on statistical models, with continual enhancement in a wide range of computational tools, in competition. In Bayesian inference, first and foremost, MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-12 Peter J. Green , Krzysztof Łatuszyński , Marcelo Pereyra , Christian P. Robert

We present a framework for approximate Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained due to computational constraints, which is becoming increasingly common for applications of complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-01 Marko Järvenpää , Jukka Corander

By the nature of their construction, many statistical models for extremes result in likelihood functions that are computationally prohibitive to evaluate. This is consequently problematic for the purposes of likelihood-based inference. With…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-07 Robert Erhardt , Scott A. Sisson

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-30 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Sayan Mukherjee , David Dunson

Stochastic systems in biology often exhibit substantial variability within and between cells. This variability, as well as having dramatic functional consequences, provides information about the underlying details of the system's behaviour.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-11-09 Iain G. Johnston

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a likelihood-free approach for Bayesian inferences based on a rejection algorithm method that applies a tolerance of dissimilarity between summary statistics from observed and simulated data.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-09-26 Shigeki Nakagome , Kenji Fukumizu , Shuhei Mano

Most of the existing algorithms for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) assume that it is feasible to simulate pseudo-data from the model at each iteration. However, the computational cost of these simulations can be prohibitive for high…

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-20 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

In this work, minibatch MCMC sampling for feedforward neural networks is made more feasible. To this end, it is proposed to sample subgroups of parameters via a blocked Gibbs sampling scheme. By partitioning the parameter space, sampling is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-25 Theodore Papamarkou

Background: We proposed approximate Bayesian computation with single distribution selection (ABC-SD) for estimating mean and standard deviation from other reported summary statistics. The ABC-SD generates pseudo data from a single…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-12 Deukwoo Kwon , Isildinha M. Reis