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This letter derives some new exponential bounds for discrete time, real valued, conditionally symmetric martingales with bounded jumps. The new bounds are extended to conditionally symmetric sub/ supermartingales, and they are compared to…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-02 Igal Sason

This paper first introduces a refined version of the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality for discrete-parameter martingales with uniformly bounded jumps. The refined inequality is used to revisit the large deviations analysis of binary hypothesis…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-07-17 Igal Sason

We study the joint laws of a continuous, uniformly integrable martingale, its maximum, and its minimum. In particular, we give explicit martingale inequalities which provide upper and lower bounds on the joint exit probabilities of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-31 Alexander M. G. Cox , Jan Obłój

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Zbigniew Palmowski , Stan Zachary

In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-11 Yaonan Jin , Yingkai Li , Yining Wang , Yuan Zhou

We obtain Azuma bounds for the probabilities of being away from the limit for a class of urn models. The method consists of relating the variables to certain linear combinations using eigenvectors of the replacement matrix, thus bringing in…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-01 Amites Dasgupta

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

We establish an Azuma type inequality under a Lipshitz condition for martingales in the framework of noncommutative probability spaces and apply it to deduce a noncommutative Heoffding inequality as well as a noncommutative McDiarmid type…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2021-07-23 Ghadir Sadeghi , Mohammad Sal Moslehian

The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Anru R. Zhang , Yuchen Zhou

This paper is focused on the moderate-deviations analysis of binary hypothesis testing. The analysis relies on a concentration inequality for discrete-parameter martingales with bounded jumps, where this inequality forms a refinement to the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Igal Sason

Consider a discrete-time martingale $\{X_t\}$ taking values in a Hilbert space $\mathcal H$. We show that if for some $L \geq 1$, the bounds $\mathbb{E} \left[\|X_{t+1}-X_t\|_{\mathcal H}^2 \mid X_t\right]=1$ and $\|X_{t+1}-X_t\|_{\mathcal…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-10 James R. Lee , Yuval Peres , Charles K. Smart

We give the proof of a tight lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable exceeds its expected value. The inequality plays an important role in a variety of contexts, including the analysis of relative deviation bounds in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-11-12 Spencer Greenberg , Mehryar Mohri

This note extends some results of Nishiyama [Ann. Probab. 28 (2000) 685--712]. A maximal inequality for stochastic integrals with respect to integer-valued random measures which may have infinitely many jumps on compact time intervals is…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Yoichi Nishiyama

Let $M_n= \fsu X1n$ be a sum of independent random variables such that $ X_k\leq 1$, $\E X_k =0$ and $\E X_k^2=\s_k^2$ for all $k$. Hoeffding 1963, Theorem 3, proved that $$\P{M_n \geq nt}\leq H^n(t,p),\quad H(t,p)= \bgl(1+qt/p\bgr)^{p +qt}…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-29 Vidmantas Bentkus , Tomas Juškevičius

While useful probability bounds for $n$ pairwise independent Bernoulli random variables adding up to at least an integer $k$ have been proposed in the literature, none of these bounds are tight in general. In this paper, we provide several…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Arjun Ramachandra , Karthik Natarajan

It is well known that Hoeffding's inequality has a lot of applications in the signal and information processing fields. How to improve Hoeffding's inequality and find the refinements of its applications have always attracted much…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-22 Pingyi Fan

We establish Hoeffding-type concentration inequalities for the low and high tail bounds of sums of exchangeable random variables. Our results exhibit an anti-symmetry in such tail bounds due to the assumption of exchangeability, a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Nina Maria Gottschling , Michele Caprio

Let $\{\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots\}$ be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. In this paper, the sufficient conditions are found under which the tail probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 Dominyka Kievinaitė , Jonas Šiaulys

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-21 Sam Justice , N. D. Shyamalkumar

We derive two probabilistic bounds for the relative forward error in the floating point summation of $n$ real numbers, by representing the roundoffs as independent, zero-mean, bounded random variables. The first probabilistic bound is based…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-31 Johnathan Rhyne
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