Related papers: Simulation Typology and Termination Risks
Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based…
As AI systems appear to exhibit ever-increasing capability and generality, assessing their true potential and safety becomes paramount. This paper contends that the prevalent evaluation methods for these systems are fundamentally…
We study termination of higher-order probabilistic functional programs with recursion, stochastic conditioning and sampling from continuous distributions. Reasoning about the termination probability of programs with continuous distributions…
When creating policies, plans, or designs for people, it is challenging for designers to foresee all of the ways in which people may reason and behave. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to be able to simulate human…
We theoretically and numerically study the problem of optimal control of large-scale autonomous systems under explicitly adversarial conditions, including probabilistic destruction of agents during the simulation. Large-scale autonomous…
In this paper we study simulation based optimization algorithms for solving discrete time optimal stopping problems. This type of algorithms became popular among practioneers working in the area of quantitative finance. Using large…
A knowledge system S describing a part of real world does in general not contain complete information. Reasoning with incomplete information is prone to errors since any belief derived from S may be false in the present state of the world.…
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly influencing our decisions and interacting with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just like for power plants, highways, and myriad other engineered sociotechnical systems, we must…
We present a new approach for reasoning about liveness properties of distributed systems, represented as automata. Our approach is based on simulation relations, and requires reasoning only over finite execution fragments. Current…
An important question for a probabilistic program is whether the probability mass of all its diverging runs is zero, that is that it terminates "almost surely". Proving that can be hard, and this paper presents a new method for doing so; it…
I discuss some problems related to extreme mathematical realism, focusing on a recently proposed "shut-up-and-calculate" approach to physics (arXiv:0704.0646, arXiv:0709.4024). I offer arguments for a moderate alternative, the essence of…
Millions of users form emotional attachments to AI companions like Character AI, Replika, and ChatGPT. When these relationships end through model updates, safety interventions, or platform shutdowns, users receive no closure, reporting…
The malicious use or malfunction of advanced general-purpose AI (GPAI) poses risks that, according to leading experts, could lead to the 'marginalisation or extinction of humanity.' To address these risks, there are an increasing number of…
We introduce SMGI, a structural theory of general artificial intelligence, and recast the foundational problem of learning from the optimization of hypotheses within fixed environments to the controlled evolution of the learning interface…
As synthetic content increasingly infiltrates the web, generative AI models may be retrained on their own outputs: a process termed "autophagy". This leads to model collapse: a progressive loss of performance and diversity across…
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to greatly improve society, but as with any powerful technology, it comes with heightened risks and responsibilities. Current AI research lacks a systematic discussion of how to manage…
In branching simulation, a novel approach to simulation presented in this paper, a multiplicity of plausible scenarios are concurrently developed and implemented. In conventional simulations of complex systems, there arise from time to time…
An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We seek a general description of state collapse spanning…
We describe a path to humanity safely thriving with powerful Artificial General Intelligences (AGIs) by building them to provably satisfy human-specified requirements. We argue that this will soon be technically feasible using advanced AI…
Decision-theoretic planning with risk-sensitive planning objectives is important for building autonomous agents or decision-support systems for real-world applications. However, this line of research has been largely ignored in the…