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In this paper we study a particular class of Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) which are semi-stochastic catastrophe versions of deterministic population growth models. In between successive jumps the process follows a flow…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Branda Goncalves , Thierry Huillet , Eva Löcherbach

Life is on the razor's edge as resulting from competitive birth and death random forces. We illustrate this aphorism in the context of three Markov chain population models where systematic random immigration events promoting growth are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-04-18 Thierry Huillet

If we follow an asexually reproducing population through time, then the amount of time that has passed since the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all current individuals lived will change as time progresses. The resulting "MRCA age"…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Steven N. Evans , Peter L. Ralph

We analyse a model consisting of a population of individuals which is subdivided into a finite set of demes, each of which has a fixed but differing number of individuals. The individuals can reproduce, die and migrate between the demes…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-08-20 George W A Constable , Alan J McKane

A piecewise-deterministic Markov process, specified by random jumps and switching semi-flows, as well as the associated Markov chain given by its post-jump locations, are investigated in this paper. The existence of an exponentially…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Dawid Czapla , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Nicolas Champagnat , Régis Ferrière , Sylvie Méléard

We consider a non-conserving zero-range process with hopping rate proportional to the number of particles at each site. Particles are added to the system with a site-dependent creation rate, and removed from the system with a uniform…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-09-04 Pascal Grange

We consider a (one-dimensional) branching Brownian motion process with a general offspring distribution having at least two moments, and in which all particles have a drift towards the origin where they are immediately absorbed. It is…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-13 Oren Louidor , Santiago Saglietti

This paper presents a stochastic model motivated by the study of a virus-like evolving population with different mutation rates. This is a continuous time birth-death model: the birth processes are mutually-exciting Hawkes processes and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Rahul Roy , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu , Paola Tardelli

A birth-death-move process with mutations is a Markov model for a system of marked particles in interaction, that move over time, with births and deaths. In addition the mark of each particle may also change, which constitutes a mutation.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Lisa Balsollier , Frédéric Lavancier

We consider a strong Markov process with killing and prove an approximation method for the distribution of the process conditioned not to be killed when it is observed. The method is based on a Fleming-Viot type particle system with…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-04 Denis Villemonais

This paper introduces stochastic processes that describe the evolution of systems of particles in which particles immigrate according to a Poisson measure and split according to a self-similar fragmentation. Criteria for existence and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Benedicte Haas

We study the population genetics of two neutral alleles under reversible mutation in the \Lambda-processes, a population model that features a skewed offspring distribution. We describe the shape of the equilibrium allele frequency…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-06-21 Ricky Der , Joshua B. Plotkin

We give a closed form of the discrete-time evolution of a recombination transformation in population genetics. This decomposition allows to define a Markov chain in a natural way. We describe the geometric decay rate to the limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Servet Martinez

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-11 Forrest W. Crawford , Marc A. Suchard

We consider a broad class of continuous-time two-type population size-dependent Markov Branching Processes. The offspring distribution can depend on the current (alive) and total (dead and alive) populations. Using stochastic approximation…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-04 Khushboo Agarwal , Veeraruna Kavitha

Under a fourth order moment condition on the branching and a second order moment condition on the immigration mechanisms, we show that an appropriately scaled projection of a supercritical and irreducible continuous state and continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-29 Matyas Barczy , Sandra Palau , Gyula Pap

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

We study branching Markov chains on a countable state space (space of types) $\mathscr{X}$, with the focus on the qualitative aspects of the limit behaviour of the evolving empirical population distributions. No conditions are imposed on…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-30 Vadim A. Kaimanovich , Wolfgang Woess

We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Aurélien Velleret