Related papers: Is Volatility Rough ?
Based on a criterion of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity…
We propose a simple stochastic volatility model which is analytically tractable, very easy to simulate and which captures some relevant stylized facts of financial assets, including scaling properties. In particular, the model displays a…
We extend the application and test the performance of a recently introduced volatility prediction framework encompassing LSTM and rough volatility. Our asset class of interest is cryptocurrencies, at the beginning of the "crypto-winter" in…
We study an extension of the Heston stochastic volatility model that incorporates rough volatility and jump clustering phenomena. In our model, named the rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model, the spot variance is a rough…
We consider a structural stochastic volatility model for the loss from a large portfolio of credit risky assets. Both the asset value and the volatility processes are correlated through systemic Brownian motions, with default determined by…
In this paper similar to [P. Carr, A. Itkin, 2019] we construct another Markovian approximation of the rough Heston-like volatility model - the ADO-Heston model. The characteristic function (CF) of the model is derived under both…
We train an LSTM network based on a pooled dataset made of hundreds of liquid stocks aiming to forecast the next daily realized volatility for all stocks. Showing the consistent outperformance of this universal LSTM relative to other…
Volatility prediction in the financial market helps to understand the profit and involved risks in investment. However, due to irregularities, high fluctuations, and noise in the time series, predicting volatility poses a challenging task.…
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we delve…
We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high-frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an…
This paper investigates short-term behaviors of implied volatility of derivatives written on indexes in equity markets when the index processes are constructed by using a ranking procedure. Even in simple market settings where stock prices…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
We introduce a modular framework that extends the signature method to handle American option pricing under evolving volatility roughness. Building on the signature-pricing framework of Bayer et al. (2025), we add three practical…
Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is constructed, the volatility process being driven by fractional noise. Price return statistics and asymptotic behavior…
In this paper, we develop a general rough volatility model for commodities that provides an automatic calibration of the initial term structure of the futures prices and an appropriate treatment of the Samuelson effect. After the…
This paper studies the joint role of long-memory dynamics,rough-volatility behavior, and persistence-based forecasting features in equity volatility modeling. We combine semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics,…
We consider a class of fractional stochastic volatility models (including the so-called rough Bergomi model), where the volatility is a superlinear function of a fractional Gaussian process. We show that the stock price is a true martingale…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…
We derive a higher-order asymptotic expansion of the conditional characteristic function of the increment of an It\^o semimartingale over a shrinking time interval. The spot characteristics of the It\^o semimartingale are allowed to have…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…