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In this paper we study a spectrally negative L\'evy process which is refracted at its running maximum and at the same time reflected from below at a certain level. Such a process can for instance be used to model an insurance surplus…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-07 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jevgenijs Ivanovs

We consider the class of (possibly killed) spectrally positive L\'evy process that have been time-changed by the inverse of an integral functional. Within this class we characterize the family of those processes which satisfy the following…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Matija Vidmar

In this paper we model basketball plays as episodes from team-specific non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) with shot clock dependent transition probabilities. Bayesian hierarchical models are employed in the modeling and…

Applications · Statistics 2021-04-19 Nathan Sandholtz , Luke Bornn

The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 D. Kleinhans , R. Friedrich

The recrossing correction to the transition state theory estimate of a thermal rate can be difficult to calculate when the energy barrier is flat. This problem arises, for example, in polymer escape if the polymer is long enough to stretch…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-09-21 Harri Mökkönen , Tapio Ala-Nissila , Hannes Jónsson

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Amrith Setlur , Barnabás Póczós

We study the behavior of independent and stationary increments jump processes as they approach fixed thresholds. The exact crossing time is unavailable because the real-time information about successive jumps is unknown. Instead, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Jewgeni H. Dshalalow , Ryan T. White

We consider the problem of estimation of the drift parameter of an ergodic Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type process driven by a L\'evy process with heavy tails. The process is observed continuously on a long time interval $[0,T]$, $T\to\infty$. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-27 Alexander Gushchin , Ilya Pavlyukevich , Marian Ritsch

In this work the diffusion in the quenched trap model with diverging mean waiting times is examined. The approach of randomly stopped time is extensively applied in order to obtain asymptotically exact representation of the disorder…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-21 Stanislav Burov

Many relevant statistical and econometric models for the analysis of longitudinal data include a latent process to account for the unobserved heterogeneity between subjects in a dynamic fashion. Such a process may be continuous (typically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-09 Francesco Bartolucci , Silvia Bacci , Fulvia Pennoni

A multiplicative identity in law connecting the hitting times of completely asymmetric $\alpha-$stable L\'evy processes in duality is established. In the spectrally positive case, this identity allows with an elementary argument to compute…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-09 Thomas Simon

In many random search processes of interest in chemistry, biology or during rescue operations, an entity must find a specific target site before the latter becomes inactive, no longer available for reaction or lost. We present exact results…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-16 Denis Boyer , Gabriel Mercado-Vásquez , Satya N. Majumdar , Grégory Schehr

We consider the performance of non-optimal hedging strategies in exponential L\'evy models. Given that both the payoff of the contingent claim and the hedging strategy admit suitable integral representations, we use the Laplace transform…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-05-18 Stephan Denkl , Martina Goy , Jan Kallsen , Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Arnd Pauwels

Inverse problems arise in situations where data is available, but the underlying model is not. It can therefore be necessary to infer the parameters of the latter starting from the former. Statistical mechanics offers a toolbox of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-04 Stefano Bae , Dario Bocchi , Luca Maria Del Bono , Luca Leuzzi

We suggest a general framework for simulation of the triplet $(X_T,\bar X_ T,\tau_T)$ (L\'evy process, its extremum, and hitting time of the extremum), and, separately, $X_T,\bar X_ T$ and pairs $(X_T,\bar X_ T)$, $(\bar X_ T,\tau_T)$,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-08 Svetlana Boyarchenko , Sergei Levendorskii

Free-Choice Workflow Petri nets, also known as Workflow Graphs, are a popular model in Business Process Modeling. In this paper we introduce Timed Probabilistic Workflow Nets (TPWNs), and give them a Markov Decision Process (MDP) semantics.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Philipp J. Meyer , Javier Esparza , Philip Offtermatt

We study the transformed hazards model with time-dependent covariates observed intermittently for the censored outcome. Existing work assumes the availability of the whole trajectory of the time-dependent covariates, which is unrealistic.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Dayu Sun , Zhuowei Sun , Xingqiu Zhao , Hongyuan Cao

Takeda-Yano determined the limit of L\'{e}vy processes conditioned to avoid zero via various random clocks in terms of Doob's $h$-transform, where the limit processes may differ according to the choice of random clocks. The purpose of this…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-18 Shosei Takeda

Let be $(X_t, t\geq 0)$ be a L\'evy process which is the sum of a Brownian motion with drift and a compound Poisson process. We consider the first passage time $\tau_x$ at a fixed level $x>0$ by $(X_t, t\geq 0)$ and $K_x:= X_{\tau_x}-x$ the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-09 Laure Coutin , Waly Ngom

We study an optimal multiple stopping problem for call-type payoff driven by a spectrally negative Levy process. The stopping times are separated by constant refraction times, and the discount rate can be positive or negative. The…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-11 Tim Leung , Kazutoshi Yamazaki , Hongzhong Zhang