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Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is challenging due to complex time series (TS) which express three seasonal patterns and a nonlinear trend. This paper proposes a novel hybrid hierarchical deep learning model that deals with multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Slawek Smyl , Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

Electricity is a volatile power source that requires great planning and resource management for both short and long term. More specifically, in the short-term, accurate instant energy consumption forecasting contributes greatly to improve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Nuno Oliveira , Norberto Sousa , Isabel Praça

With the employment of smart meters, massive data on consumer behaviour can be collected by retailers. From the collected data, the retailers may obtain the household profile information and implement demand response. While retailers prefer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Yi Dong , Yang Chen , Xingyu Zhao , Xiaowei Huang

We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-13 Thi Ngoc Nguyen , Felix Müsgens

We present in this paper a model for forecasting short-term power loads based on deep residual networks. The proposed model is able to integrate domain knowledge and researchers' understanding of the task by virtue of different neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-31 Kunjin Chen , Kunlong Chen , Qin Wang , Ziyu He , Jun Hu , Jinliang He

The increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) into modern power systems presents significant opportunities but also notable challenges, primarily due to the inherent variability of RES generation. Accurate forecasting of RES…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Farshid Kamrani , Kristen Schell

Accurate load forecasting is critical for reliable and efficient planning and operation of electric power grids. In this paper, we propose a unifying deep learning framework for load forecasting, which includes time-varying feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-10 Jing Xiong , Yu Zhang

A novel methodology for short-term energy forecasting using an Extreme Learning Machine ($\mathtt{ELM}$) is proposed. Using six years of hourly data collected in Corsica (France) from multiple energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, thermal,…

Smart solar inverters can be used to store, monitor and manage a home's solar energy. We describe a smart solar inverter system with battery which can either operate in an automatic mode or receive commands over a network to charge and…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-10-29 Richard Bean , Hina Khan

Short-term forecasting of residential electricity demand is an important task for utilities. Yet, many small and medium-sized utilities still use simple forecasting approaches such as Synthesized Load Profiles, which treat residential…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Daniel R. Bayer , Felix Haag , Marco Pruckner , Konstantin Hopf

Considering the grid manager's point of view, needs in terms of prediction of intermittent energy like the photovoltaic resource can be distinguished according to the considered horizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-07-24 Cyril Voyant , Christophe Paoli , Marc Muselli , Marie Laure Nivet

Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-25 T. Cinto , A. L. S. Gradvohl , G. P. Coelho , A. E. A. da Silva

Task embeddings in multi-layer perceptrons for multi-task learning and inductive transfer learning in renewable power forecasts have recently been introduced. In many cases, this approach improves the forecast error and reduces the required…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Jens Schreiber , Stephan Vogt , Bernhard Sick

In this work we analyse a set of benchmark methods for solar irradiance forecasting based on the clear-sky index, namely, persistence, climatology, smart-persistence and convex combination (CC) of persistence and climatology. To assess the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-29 Rodrigo Alonso-Suárez , Daniel Aicardi , Franco Marchesoni-Acland

Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) is necessary for effective scheduling, operation optimization trading, and decision-making for electricity consumers. Modern and efficient machine learning methods are recalled nowadays to manage complicated…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-20 Junjie Hu , Brenda López Cabrera , Awdesch Melzer

Accurately forecasting long-term atmospheric variables remains a defining challenge in meteorological science due to the chaotic nature of atmospheric systems. Temperature data represents a complex superposition of deterministic cyclical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Shreyas Rajeev , Karthik Mudenahalli Ashoka , Amit Mallappa Tiparaddi

Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-10 Nina Horat , Sina Klerings , Sebastian Lerch

We develop a probabilistic framework for joint simulation of short-term electricity generation from renewable assets. In this paper we describe a method for producing hourly day-ahead scenarios of generated power at grid-scale across…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-11 Mike Ludkovski , Glen Swindle , Eric Grannan

Intermittent renewable energy resources like wind and solar pose great uncertainty of multiple time scales, from minutes to years, on the design and operation of power systems. Energy system optimization models have been developed to find…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-27 Yuheng Zhang , Vivian Cheng , Dharik S. Mallapragada , Jie Song , Guannan He

Accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the safe and economic operation of solar photovoltaic systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting performance…

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