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In this paper, we presents a novel hierarchical federated learning architecture specifically designed for smart agricultural production systems and crop yield prediction. Our approach introduces a seasonal subscription mechanism where farms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Anas Abouaomar , Mohammed El hanjri , Abdellatif Kobbane , Anis Laouiti , Khalid Nafil

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of smart farming tools. While AI-driven digital agriculture tools can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, they lack tangible…

Extreme events pose significant risks and are challenging to predict. Assessing climate hazards requires placing quantitative constraints on geophysical fields under observable but fluctuating conditions. We propose a framework for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-27 Andrew Brettin , Laure Zanna

We consider statistical inference in the density estimation model using a tree-based Bayesian approach, with Optional P\'olya trees as prior distribution. We derive near-optimal convergence rates for corresponding posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-12 Ismaël Castillo , Thibault Randrianarisoa

Decision forests are widely used for classification and regression tasks. A lesser known property of tree-based methods is that one can construct a proximity matrix from the tree(s), and these proximity matrices are induced kernels. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-14 Sambit Panda , Cencheng Shen , Joshua T. Vogelstein

Precise yield prediction is essential for agricultural sustainability and food security. However, climate change complicates accurate yield prediction by affecting major factors such as weather conditions, soil fertility, and farm…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Shalini Dangi , Surya Karthikeya Mullapudi , Chandravardhan Singh Raghaw , Shahid Shafi Dar , Mohammad Zia Ur Rehman , Nagendra Kumar

High-resolution yield maps for manually harvested crops are impractical to generate on commercial scales because yield monitors are available only for mechanical harvesters. However, precision crop management relies on accurately…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-16 Uddhav Bhattarai , Rajkishan Arikapudi , Chen Peng , Steven A. Fennimore , Frank N Martin , Stavros G. Vougioukas

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

Pre-season prediction of crop production outcomes such as grain yields and N losses can provide insights to stakeholders when making decisions. Simulation models can assist in scenario planning, but their use is limited because of data…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-09 Mohsen Shahhosseini , Rafael A. Martinez-Feria , Guiping Hu , Sotirios V. Archontoulis

Optimizing wheat variety selection for high performance in different environmental conditions is critical for reliable food production and stable incomes for growers. We employ a statistical machine learning framework utilizing Gaussian…

Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) has exhibited strong empirical performance in many real-world applications. The vast majority of existing works on GCN primarily focus on the accuracy while ignoring how confident or uncertain a GCN is with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Jian Kang , Qinghai Zhou , Hanghang Tong

We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-09 Jinjun Liu , Ming-Yen Cheng

Accurate and fine-grained crop yield prediction plays a crucial role in advancing global agriculture. However, the accuracy of pixel-level yield estimation based on satellite remote sensing data has been constrained by the scarcity of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Shenzhou Liu , Di Wang , Haonan Guo , Chengxi Han , Wenzhi Zeng

Shapley values have emerged as a critical tool for explaining which features impact the decisions made by machine learning models. However, computing exact Shapley values is difficult, generally requiring an exponential (in the feature…

Crop yield prediction requires substantial data to train scalable models. However, creating yield prediction datasets is constrained by high acquisition costs, heterogeneous data quality, and data privacy regulations. Consequently, existing…

A kernel method for estimating a probability density function (pdf) from an i.i.d. sample drawn from such density is presented. Our estimator is a linear combination of kernel functions, the coefficients of which are determined by a linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-20 Yoshihito Kazashi , Fabio Nobile

Quantile Regression (QR) can be used to estimate aleatoric uncertainty in deep neural networks and can generate prediction intervals. Quantifying uncertainty is particularly important in critical applications such as clinical diagnosis,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-15 Haleh Akrami , Omar Zamzam , Anand Joshi , Sergul Aydore , Richard Leahy

Farmers in developing regions like Karnataka, India, face a dual challenge: navigating extreme market and climate volatility while being excluded from the digital revolution due to literacy barriers. This paper presents a novel decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Niranjan Mallikarjun Sindhur , Pavithra C , Nivya Muchikel

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of operations research. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Nijat Mehdiyev , Maxim Majlatow , Peter Fettke