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Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-10-27 Sunil Jaiswal , Chun Shen , Richard J. Furnstahl , Ulrich Heinz , Matthew T. Pratola

We construct a simple quantum version of the classical Metropolis algorithm to prepare and observe quantum thermal states. It induces both a quantum Markov chain that mixes the quantum thermal state and a classical Markov chain that mixes…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-06-10 Jonathan E. Moussa

We propose an interdisciplinary framework that combines Bayesian predictive inference, a well-established tool in Machine Learning, with Formal Methods rooted in the computer science community. Bayesian predictive inference allows for…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-21 Laura Vana , Ennio Visconti , Laura Nenzi , Annalisa Cadonna , Gregor Kastner

A mathematical model is a function taking certain arguments and returning a theoretical prediction of a feature of a physical system. The arguments to the mathematical model can be split into two groups; (a) controllable variables of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-15 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree

The inter-temporal consumption flexibility of commercial buildings can be harnessed to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, or to provide ancillary service to the power grid. To do so, a predictive model of the building's thermal…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-03-23 Qie Hu , Frauke Oldewurtel , Maximilian Balandat , Evangelos Vrettos , Datong Zhou , Claire J. Tomlin

Identifying the active factors that have significant impacts on the output of the complex system is an important but challenging variable selection problem in computer experiments. In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical Gaussian process…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Xiao Yao , Ning Jianhui , Qin Hong

Probability predictions are essential to inform decision making across many fields. Ideally, probability predictions are (i) well calibrated, (ii) accurate, and (iii) bold, i.e., spread out enough to be informative for decision making.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-07 Adeline P. Guthrie , Christopher T. Franck

We propose practical extensions to Bayesian optimization for solving dynamic problems. We model dynamic objective functions using spatiotemporal Gaussian process priors which capture all the instances of the functions over time. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-12 Favour M. Nyikosa , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

The extension of Boltzmann-Gibbs thermostatistics, proposed by Tsallis, introduces an additional parameter $q$ to the inverse temperature $\beta$. Here, we show that a previously introduced generalized Metropolis dynamics to evolve spin…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-07-05 Roberto da Silva , Jose Roberto Drugowich de Felicio , Alexandre Souto Martinez

Accurate calibration of car-following models is essential for understanding human driving behaviors and implementing high-fidelity microscopic simulations. This work proposes a memory-augmented Bayesian calibration technique to capture both…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-25 Chengyuan Zhang , Lijun Sun

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-04 Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo , Tapio Schneider , Andrew M. Stuart

In the recent literature on machine learning and decision making, calibration has emerged as a desirable and widely-studied statistical property of the outputs of binary prediction models. However, the algorithmic aspects of measuring model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Lunjia Hu , Arun Jambulapati , Kevin Tian , Chutong Yang

This paper develops a Bayesian optimal experimental design for robot kinematic calibration on ${\mathbb{S}^3 \!\times\! \mathbb{R}^3}$. Our method builds upon a Gaussian process approach that incorporates a geometry-aware kernel based on…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Ersin Das , Thomas Touma , Joel W. Burdick

In experiments to estimate parameters of a parametric model, Bayesian experiment design allows measurement settings to be chosen based on utility, which is the predicted improvement of parameter distributions due to modeled measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Robert D. McMichael , Sean M. Blakley

Phase estimation is known to be a robust method for single-qubit gate calibration in quantum computers, while Bayesian estimation is widely used in devising optimal methods for learning in quantum systems. We present Bayesian phase…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-06 Brennan de Neeve , Andrey V. Lebedev , Vlad Negnevitsky , Jonathan P. Home

Hyperparameter optimization aims to find the optimal hyperparameter configuration of a machine learning model, which provides the best performance on a validation dataset. Manual search usually leads to get stuck in a local hyperparameter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-01 Jungtaek Kim , Saehoon Kim , Seungjin Choi

This paper discusses a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm developed by \citeA{MarsmanIsing}. The algorithm is derived from first principles, and it is proven that the algorithm becomes more efficient with more data and meets the growing demands…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-14 Timo Bechger , Gunter Maris , Maarten Marsman

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-30 Jasper Snoek , Hugo Larochelle , Ryan P. Adams

Ensuring a satisfactory statistical convergence of anharmonic thermodynamic properties requires sampling of many atomic configurations, however the methods to obtain those necessarily produce correlated samples, thereby reducing the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-06-07 Erki Metsanurk