Related papers: Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation for large …

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a Bayesian nonparametric method for regression and interpolation, offering a principled way of quantifying the uncertainties of predicted function values. For the quantified uncertainties to be…

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

We introduce a simple and scalable method for training Gaussian process (GP) models that exploits cross-validation and nearest neighbor truncation. To accommodate binary and multi-class classification we leverage P\`olya-Gamma auxiliary…

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong results on a range of applications, including regression and scoring tasks. Typically, one obtains outputs from an LLM via autoregressive sampling from the model's output distribution. We show…

A data analyst might worry about generalization if dropping a very small fraction of data points from a study could change its substantive conclusions. Checking this non-robustness directly poses a combinatorial optimization problem and is…

Consider the following class of learning schemes: $$\hat{\boldsymbol{\beta}} := \arg\min_{\boldsymbol{\beta}}\;\sum_{j=1}^n \ell(\boldsymbol{x}_j^\top\boldsymbol{\beta}; y_j) + \lambda R(\boldsymbol{\beta}),\qquad\qquad (1) $$ where…

Contemporary sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models require users to specify fixed values of assumed model performance metrics alongside target precision levels (e.g., 95% CI widths). However, due to the…

The use of the proportional odds (PO) model for ordinal regression is ubiquitous in the literature. If the assumption of parallel lines does not hold for the data, then an alternative is to specify a non-proportional odds (NPO) model, where…

Implementing Bayesian variable selection for linear Gaussian regression models for analysing high dimensional data sets is of current interest in many fields. In order to make such analysis operational, we propose a new sampling algorithm…

Predictive models ground many state-of-the-art developments in statistical brain image analysis: decoding, MVPA, searchlight, or extraction of biomarkers. The principled approach to establish their validity and usefulness is…

This paper aims at assessing the power system reliability by estimating loss of load (LOL) index using mutual information based Bayesian approach. Reliability analysis is a key component in the design, analysis and tuning of complex…

Mislabeled, duplicated, or biased data in real-world scenarios can lead to prolonged training and even hinder model convergence. Traditional solutions prioritizing easy or hard samples lack the flexibility to handle such a variety…

Many real-world optimization problems are guided by complex, subjective preferences that are difficult to express as explicit closed-form objectives. In response, we introduce Language-in-the-Loop Optimization (LILO), a Bayesian…

Determining the best model or models for a particular data set, a process known as Bayesian model comparison, is a critical part of probabilistic inference. Typically, this process assumes a fixed model-space (that is, a fixed set of…

This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external…

The likelihood ratio (LR) is largely used to evaluate the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses and for its assessment Bayesian methods are widespread in the forensic field. However, the Bayesian `recipe' for the LR…

In regression with random design, we study the problem of selecting a model that performs well for out-of-sample prediction. We do not assume that any of the candidate models under consideration are correct. Our analysis is based on…

Penalized regression models such as the Lasso have proved useful for variable selection in many fields - especially for situations with high-dimensional data where the numbers of predictors far exceeds the number of observations. These…

Lasso and other regularization procedures are attractive methods for variable selection, subject to a proper choice of shrinkage parameter. Given a set of potential subsets produced by a regularization algorithm, a consistent model…