Related papers: Seasonal FIEGARCH Processes
We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it…
A new sufficient condition for the existence of a stationary causal solution of an ARCH($\infty$) equation is provided. This condition allows to consider polynomially decaying coefficients, so that it can be applied to the so-called FIGARCH…
Time reversal invariance can be summarized as follows: no difference can be measured if a sequence of events is run forward or backward in time. Because price time series are dominated by a randomness that hides possible structures and…
We consider a class of stochastic dynamical systems, called piecewise deterministic Markov processes, with states $(x, \s)\in \O\times \G$, $\O$ being a region in $\bbR^d$ or the $d$--dimensional torus, $\G$ being a finite set. The…
Finding parametric models that accurately describe the dependence structure of observed data is a central task in the analysis of time series. Classical frequency domain methods provide a popular set of tools for fitting and diagnostics of…
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…
Many physical, chemical and biological systems exhibit a cooperative or sigmoidal response with respect to the input. In biochemistry, such behavior is called an allosteric effect. Here we demonstrate that a system with such properties can…
Multivariate $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ processes are introduced as a continuous-time models for multidimensional heteroskedastic observations. Our model is driven by a single multivariate L\'{e}vy process and the latent time-varying…
This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model…
We develop a procedure for forecasting the volatility of a time series immediately following a news shock. Adapting the similarity-based framework of Lin and Eck (2020), we exploit series that have experienced similar shocks. We aggregate…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
The scope of the paper is the theoretical analysis of the time rate in which a dynamical system reaches a stable stationary state or stable oscillations. The method used for the analysis is based on the so-called iterative time profiles,…
The estimation of the covariance function of a stochastic process, or signal, is of integral importance for a multitude of signal processing applications. In this work, we derive closed-form expressions for the variance of covariance…
We investigate the general problem of how to model the kinematics of stock prices without considering the dynamical causes of motion. We propose a stochastic process with long-range correlated absolute returns. We find that the model is…
We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic volatility framework on the example of the Heston model. To be more specific, we consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under fixed…
In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH…
We select n stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the k trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We analyze each ensemble of stock returns by…
Some problems in the theory and applications of stochastic processes can be reduced to solving integral equations. While explicit solutions for these equations are often elusive, valuable insights can be gained through their asymptotic…
In setting up a stochastic description of the time evolution of a financial index, the challenge consists in devising a model compatible with all stylized facts emerging from the analysis of financial time series and providing a reliable…
The serial correlations of illiquid stock's price changes are studied, allowing for unconditional heteroscedasticity and time-varying zero returns probability. Depending on the set up, we investigate how the usual autocorrelations can be…