Related papers: An Alternative Data-Driven Prediction Approach Bas…
Stochastic volatility models based on Gaussian processes, like fractional Brownian motion, are able to reproduce important stylized facts of financial markets such as rich autocorrelation structures, persistence and roughness of sample…
We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…
For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
In this paper, we consider the portfolio optimization problem in a financial market where the underlying stochastic volatility model is driven by n-dimensional Brownian motions. At first, we derive a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
Time series prediction is often complicated by distribution shift which demands adaptive models to accommodate time-varying distributions. We frame time series prediction under distribution shift as a weighted empirical risk minimisation…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
We propose a novel group of Gaussian Process based algorithms for fast approximate optimal stopping of time series with specific applications to financial markets. We show that structural properties commonly exhibited by financial time…
Diffusion processes driven by Fractional Brownian motion (FBM) have often been considered in modeling stock price dynamics in order to capture the long range dependence of stock price observed in reality. Option prices for such models had…
Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…
In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…
A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of…
We construct a binomial tree model fitting all moments to the approximated geometric Brownian motion. Our construction generalizes the classical Cox-Ross-Rubinstein, the Jarrow-Rudd, and the Tian binomial tree models. The new binomial model…
The main purpose of this paper is to extend the information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody-Hughston-Macrina to a more general set-up. We include a wider class of models for market information and in contrast to the original paper,…
Time series forecasting is essential for decision making in many domains. In this work, we address the challenge of predicting prices evolution among multiple potentially interacting financial assets. A solution to this problem has obvious…
Under the assumption of no-arbitrage, the pricing of American and Bermudan options can be casted into optimal stopping problems. We propose a new adaptive simulation based algorithm for the numerical solution of optimal stopping problems in…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
This paper investigates a new class of modifier-adaptation schemes to overcome plant-model mismatch in real-time optimization of uncertain processes. The main contribution lies in the integration of concepts from the areas of Bayesian…
We present a new numerical method to price vanilla options quickly in time-changed Brownian motion models. The method is based on rational function approximations of the Black-Scholes formula. Detailed numerical results are given for a…