Related papers: Why Are the ARIMA and SARIMA not Sufficient
In this paper, we use convolutional neural networks to address the problem of model identification for autoregressive moving average time series models. We compare the performance of several neural network architectures, trained on…
We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…
Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…
A wide range of approaches for batch processes monitoring can be found in the literature. This kind of process generates a very peculiar data structure, in which successive measurements of many process variables in each batch run are…
In this paper we discuss dynamic ARMA-type regression models for time series taking values in $(0,\infty)$. In the proposed model, the conditional mean is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms,…
We develop an anomaly-detection method when systematic anomalies, possibly statistically very similar to genuine inputs, are affecting control systems at the input and/or output stages. The method allows anomaly-free inputs (i.e., those…
Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving…
In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…
This study reports a statistical analysis of monthly sunspot number time series and observes non homogeneity and asymmetry within it. Using Mann-Kendall test a linear trend is revealed. After identifying stationarity within the time series…
Providing forecasts for ultra-long time series plays a vital role in various activities, such as investment decisions, industrial production arrangements, and farm management. This paper develops a novel distributed forecasting framework to…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
For the large family of ARMA models with variable coefficients (TV-ARMA), either deterministic or stochastic, we provide an explicit and computationally tractable representation based on the general solution of the associated linear…
This paper proposes the beta binomial autoregressive moving average model (BBARMA) for modeling quantized amplitude data and bounded count data. The BBARMA model estimates the conditional mean of a beta binomial distributed variable…
Weather forecasting benefits us in various ways from farmers in cultivation and harvesting their crops to airlines to schedule their flights. Weather forecasting is a challenging task due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Therefore…
Compositional time series frequently exhibit structural breaks due to external shocks, policy changes, or market disruptions. Standard methods either ignore such breaks or handle them through fixed effects that cannot extrapolate beyond the…
By significant improvements in modern electrical systems, planning for unit commitment and power dispatching of them are two big concerns between the researchers. Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in planning and…
We propose a Weighted Autoregressive Varying gatE (WAVE) attention mechanism equipped with both Autoregressive (AR) and Moving-average (MA) components. It can adapt to various attention mechanisms, enhancing and decoupling their ability to…
This work proposes a novel approach for multiple time series forecasting. At first, multi-way delay embedding transform (MDT) is employed to represent time series as low-rank block Hankel tensors (BHT). Then, the higher-order tensors are…
This is a survey of some recent results on the rational circulant covariance extension problem: Given a partial sequence $(c_0,c_1,\dots,c_n)$ of covariance lags $c_k=\mathbb{E}\{y(t+k)\overline{y(t)}\}$ emanating from a stationary periodic…
A novel first-order moving-average model for analyzing time series observed at irregularly spaced intervals is introduced. Two definitions are presented, which are equivalent under Gaussianity. The first one relies on normally distributed…