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Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Sylvain Delattre , Nicolas Fournier , Marc Hoffmann

We study systems of simple point processes that admit stochastic intensities. We represent these point processes as thinnings of Poisson measures and are interested in a convergence result of such systems. This result states that, if the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-11 Xavier Erny

We study the asymptotics of the point process induced by an interacting particle system with mean-field drift interaction. Under suitable assumptions, we establish propagation of chaos for this point process: it has the same weak limit as…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Nikolaos Kolliopoulos , Martin Larsson , Zeyu Zhang

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We study a multivariate, non-linear Hawkes process $Z^N$ on the complete graph with $N$ nodes. Each vertex is either excitatory (probability $p$) or inhibitory (probability $1-p$). We take the mean-field limit of $Z^N$, leading to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-14 Peter Pfaffelhuber , Stefan Rotter , Jakob Stiefel

In this paper, we establish general scaling limits for nearly unstable Hawkes processes in a mean-field regime by extending the method introduced by Jaisson and Rosenbaum. Under a mild asymptotic criticality condition on the self-exciting…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Grégoire Szymanski , Wei Xu

Focusing on stochastic systems arising in mean-field models, the systems under consideration belong to the class of switching diffusions, in which continuous dynamics and discrete events coexist and interact. The discrete events are modeled…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-18 Son L. Nguyen , George Yin , Tuan A. Hoang

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-04 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The decomposition of the energy of a compressible fluid parcel into slow (deterministic) and fast (stochastic) components is interpreted as a stochastic Hamiltonian interacting particle system (HIPS). It is shown that the McKean-Vlasov…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-10-02 Simon Hochgerner

We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy

We prove a central limit type theorem for critical marked Hawkes processes. We study the case where the marks are i.i.d. with nonnegative values and their common distribution is either heavy tailed or has finite variance. The kernel…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Anna Talarczyk

We study a multivariate, non-linear Hawkes process $Z^N$ on a $q$-Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi-graph with $N$ nodes. Each vertex is either excitatory (probability $p$) or inhibitory (probability $1-p$). If $p\neq\tfrac12$, we take the mean-field…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-27 Jakob Stiefel

Motivated by an application to empirical Bayes learning in high-dimensional regression, we study a class of Langevin diffusions in a system with random disorder, where the drift coefficient is driven by a parameter that continuously adapts…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Zhou Fan , Justin Ko , Bruno Loureiro , Yue M. Lu , Yandi Shen

Oscillatory systems of interacting Hawkes processes with Erlang memory kernels were introduced in Ditlevsen (2017). They are piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) and can be approximated by a stochastic diffusion. First, a strong…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-25 Julien Chevallier , Anna Melnykova , Irene Tubikanec

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of networks of interacting non-linear Hawkes processes modeling a homogeneous population of neurons in the large population limit. In particular, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-06 Sophie Heesen , Wilhelm Stannat

Large ensembles of stochastically evolving interacting particles describe phenomena in diverse fields including statistical physics, neuroscience, biology, and engineering. In such systems, the infinitesimal evolution of each particle…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-02 Kavita Ramanan

We generalize multivariate Hawkes processes mainly by including a dependence with respect to the age of the process, i.e. the delay since the last point. Within this class, we investigate the limit behaviour, when n goes to infinity, of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-16 Julien Chevallier

In this article, we study an interacting particle system in the context of epidemiology where the individuals (particles) are characterized by their position and infection state. We begin with a description at the microscopic level where…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-06 Maxime Hauray , Etienne Pardoux , Yen V. Vuong
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