Related papers: Predicting human decisions with behavioral theorie…

We live in a world brimming with uncertainty, where we constantly have to make a lot of decisions under incomplete information. We are firm believers that our subjective belief cannot be computed by rigorous mathematical formula; instead…

A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…

Predicting chaotic dynamical systems is critical in many scientific fields, such as weather forecasting, but challenging due to the characteristic sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Traditional modeling approaches require extensive…

Backpropagation (BP) is the standard algorithm for training the deep neural networks that power modern artificial intelligence including large language models. However, BP is energy inefficient and unlikely to be implemented by the brain.…

The development of automated vehicles has the potential to revolutionize transportation, but they are currently unable to ensure a safe and time-efficient driving style. Reliable models predicting human behavior are essential for overcoming…

Accurate prediction of human behavior is crucial for effective human-robot interaction (HRI) systems, especially in dynamic environments where real-time decisions are essential. This paper addresses the challenge of forecasting future human…

A key challenge in multi-agent systems is the design of intelligent agents solving real-world tasks in close interaction with other agents (e.g. humans), thereby being confronted with a variety of behavioral variations and limited knowledge…

Predicting player behavior in strategic games, especially complex ones like chess, presents a significant challenge. The difficulty arises from several factors. First, the sheer number of potential outcomes stemming from even a single…

For a real-world decision-making problem, the reward function often needs to be engineered or learned. A popular approach is to utilize human feedback to learn a reward function for training. The most straightforward way to do so is to ask…

Making safe and human-like decisions is an essential capability of autonomous driving systems, and learning-based behavior planning presents a promising pathway toward achieving this objective. Distinguished from existing learning-based…

In decision making tasks under uncertainty, humans display characteristic biases in seeking, integrating, and acting upon information relevant to the task. Here, we reexamine data from previous carefully designed experiments, collected at…

The Science4cast 2021 competition focuses on predicting future edges in an evolving semantic network, where each vertex represents an artificial intelligence concept, and an edge between a pair of vertices denotes that the two concepts have…

Excellent ranking power along with well calibrated probability estimates are needed in many classification tasks. In this paper, we introduce a technique, Calibrated Boosting-Forest that captures both. This novel technique is an ensemble of…

The contextual multi-armed bandit (MAB) is a widely used framework for problems requiring sequential decision-making under uncertainty, such as recommendation systems. In applications involving a large number of users, the performance of…

Supervised machine-learning models for predicting user behavior offer a challenging classification problem with lower average prediction performance scores than other text classification tasks. This study evaluates multi-task learning…

The development of driverless vehicles has spurred the need to predict human driving behavior to facilitate interaction between driverless and human-driven vehicles. Predicting human driving movements can be challenging, and poor prediction…

Under the multispecies coalescent model of molecular evolution, gene trees have independent evolutionary histories within a shared species tree. In comparison, supermatrix concatenation methods assume that gene trees share a single common…

Gaining a deeper understanding of weather and being able to predict its future conduct have always been considered important endeavors for the growth of our society. This research paper explores the advancements in understanding and…

The ABCD Neurocognitive Prediction Challenge is a community driven competition asking competitors to develop algorithms to predict fluid intelligence score from T1-w MRIs. In this work, we propose a deep learning combined with gradient…

A key prerequisite to optimal reasoning under uncertainty in intelligent systems is to start with good class probability estimates. This paper improves on the current best probability estimation trees (Bagged-PETs) and also presents a new…