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Interpretability and uncertainty quantification in machine learning can provide justification for decisions, promote scientific discovery and lead to a better understanding of model behavior. Symbolic regression provides inherently…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-11-23 G. F. Bomarito , P. E. Leser , N. C. M Strauss , K. M. Garbrecht , J. D. Hochhalter

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

Bayesian methods have become a popular way to incorporate prior knowledge and a notion of uncertainty into machine learning models. At the same time, the complexity of modern machine learning makes it challenging to comprehend a model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Sarem Seitz

This work incorporates the multi-modality of the data distribution into a Gaussian Process regression model. We approach the problem from a discriminative perspective by learning, jointly over the training data, the target space variance in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-20 Silvia L. Pintea , Jan C. van Gemert , Arnold W. M. Smeulders

In Bayesian inference, an unknown measurement uncertainty is often quantified in terms of a Gamma distributed precision parameter, which is impractical when prior information on the standard deviation of the measurement uncertainty shall be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Manuel M. Eichenlaub

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

The field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) attempts to develop methods that provide insight into how complicated machine learning methods make predictions. Many methods of explanation have focused on the concept of feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Kurt Butler , Guanchao Feng , Petar M. Djuric

In the Gaussian linear regression model (with unknown mean and variance), we show that the standard confidence set for one or two regression coefficients is admissible in the sense of Joshi (1969). This solves a long-standing open problem…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Hannes Leeb , Paul Kabaila

Support vector machines (SVMs) are special kernel based methods and belong to the most successful learning methods since more than a decade. SVMs can informally be described as a kind of regularized M-estimators for functions and have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-07-26 Andreas Christmann , Robert Hable

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Irene Kim , Rushil Anirudh , Peer-Timo Bremer

We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-06 Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti , Nicola Paoletti , Andrea Patane , Matthew Wicker

Uncertainty in machine learning is not generally taught as general knowledge in Machine Learning course curricula. In this paper we propose a short curriculum for a course about uncertainty in machine learning, and complement the course…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Matias Valdenegro-Toro

We propose a fast inference method for Bayesian nonlinear support vector machines that leverages stochastic variational inference and inducing points. Our experiments show that the proposed method is faster than competing Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-22 Florian Wenzel , Theo Galy-Fajou , Matthaeus Deutsch , Marius Kloft

Kernel-based multivariate statistical process control (K-MSPC) extends classical monitoring to nonlinear industrial processes. Its performance depends critically on kernel parameters such as lengthscales and variance terms. In current…

Subgradient algorithms for training support vector machines have been quite successful for solving large-scale and online learning problems. However, they have been restricted to linear kernels and strongly convex formulations. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-11-04 Sangkyun Lee , Stephen J. Wright

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Many algorithms in computer vision and robotics make strong assumptions about uncertainty, and rely on the validity of these assumptions to produce accurate and consistent state estimates. In practice, dynamic environments may degrade…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Valentin Peretroukhin , William Vega-Brown , Nicholas Roy , Jonathan Kelly

A particularly challenging problem in AI safety is providing guarantees on the behavior of high-dimensional autonomous systems. Verification approaches centered around reachability analysis fail to scale, and purely statistical approaches…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Souradeep Dutta , Michele Caprio , Vivian Lin , Matthew Cleaveland , Kuk Jin Jang , Ivan Ruchkin , Oleg Sokolsky , Insup Lee

In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Pei-Shien Wu , Ryan Martin

Gaussian processes are machine learning models capable of learning unknown functions in a way that represents uncertainty, thereby facilitating construction of optimal decision-making systems. Motivated by a desire to deploy Gaussian…

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