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From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-08-26 D. Sornette , T. Maillart , W. Kroeger

Attention mechanism has become the dominant module in natural language processing models. It is computationally intensive and depends on massive power-hungry multiplications. In this paper, we rethink variants of attention mechanism from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Yu Wan , Baosong Yang , Dayiheng Liu , Rong Xiao , Derek F. Wong , Haibo Zhang , Boxing Chen , Lidia S. Chao

We extend the exploration regarding dynamical approach of macroeconomic variables by tackling systematically expenditure using Statistical Physics models (for the first time to the best of our knowledge). Also, using polynomial distribution…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-29 Elvis Oltean , Fedor Kusmartsev

Efficient inference is critical for long-context language models, where attention computation and KV-cache access dominate the cost. Recent work RAT+, introduces a recurrence-augmented attention backbone that enables flexible dilated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Xiuying Wei , Caglar Gulcehre

Adapting language models (LMs) to new tasks via post-training carries the risk of degrading existing capabilities -- a phenomenon classically known as catastrophic forgetting. In this paper, toward identifying guidelines for mitigating this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Howard Chen , Noam Razin , Karthik Narasimhan , Danqi Chen

This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on the belief in false information, including misinformation, disinformation, and fake information. It addresses the increasing societal concern regarding false information, which is…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Fabian Walke , Thaddäa Nürnberger

Citing papers is the primary method through which modern scientific writing discusses and builds on past work. Collectively, citing a diverse set of papers (in time and area of study) is an indicator of how widely the community is reading.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Janvijay Singh , Mukund Rungta , Diyi Yang , Saif M. Mohammad

Bad statistics make research papers unreproducible and misleading. For the most part, the reasons for such misusage of numerical data have been found and addressed years ago by experts and proper practical solutions have been presented…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-10-26 Farzan Shenavarmasouleh , Hamid R. Arabnia

Modern science increasingly relies on ever-growing observational datasets and automated inference pipelines, under the implicit belief that accumulating more data makes scientific conclusions more reliable. Here we show that this belief can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Zhipeng Zhang , Kai Li

Despite enormous efforts devoted to understand the characteristics and impacts of retracted papers, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of their harm and the dynamics of its propagation. Here, we propose a…

Attention mechanisms have recently boosted performance on a range of NLP tasks. Because attention layers explicitly weight input components' representations, it is also often assumed that attention can be used to identify information that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Sofia Serrano , Noah A. Smith

Large scale reinforcement learning has become a central tool for improving reasoning in large language models. At this scale, generation is often lagged or asynchronous, so updates are performed on data collected by older policies. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Otmane Sakhi , Aleksei Arzhantsev , Imad Aouali , Flavian Vasile

Objectives: The aim of this paper is to contrast the retrospective and prospective use of experts beliefs in choosing between survival models in economic evaluations. Methods: The use of experts retrospective (posterior) beliefs is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-15 J. W. Stevens , M. Orr

While large language models (LLMs) are pretrained on massive amounts of data, their knowledge coverage remains incomplete in specialized, data-scarce domains, motivating extensive efforts to study synthetic data generation for knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Kexian Tang , Jiani Wang , Shaowen Wang , Kaifeng Lyu

Humans' internal states play a key role in human-machine interaction, leading to the rise of human state estimation as a prominent field. Compared to swift state changes such as surprise and irritation, modeling gradual states like trust…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-01-18 Minxue Niu , Zhaobo Zheng , Kumar Akash , Teruhisa Misu

The attention mechanism has largely improved the performance of end-to-end speech recognition systems. However, the underlying behaviours of attention is not yet clearer. In this study, we use decision trees to explain how the attention…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-10-11 Yuanchao Wang , Wenji Du , Chenghao Cai , Yanyan Xu

Work is fundamental to societal prosperity and mental health, providing financial security, identity, purpose, and social integration. The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has catalysed debate on job displacement. Some…

The "free trial" followed by automatic renewal is a dominant business model in the digital economy. Standard models explain trials as a mechanism for consumers to learn their valuation for a product. We propose a complementary theory based…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-18 F. Nguyen

This paper investigates the causal relationship between income shocks during the first years of life and adulthood mortality due to specific causes of death. Using all death records in the United States during 1968-2004 for individuals who…

General Economics · Economics 2021-02-09 Hamid NoghaniBehambari , Farzaneh Noghani , Nahid Tavassoli

Timely implementation of interventions to slow cognitive decline among older adults requires accurate monitoring to detect changes in cognitive function. Data gathered using wearable devices that can continuously monitor factors known to be…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-26 Collin Sakal , Tingyou Li , Juan Li , Xinyue Li