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By using the coupling technique, we present sufficient conditions for the exponential ergodicity of general continuous-state nonlinear branching processes in both the $L^1$-Wasserstein distance and the total variation norm, where the drift…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Pei-Sen Li , Jian Wang

This study explores a Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach for estimating parameters of diffusion processes with Markovian regime switching. Assuming the ergodicity under high-frequency sampling, we will show the asymptotic normality of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-19 Yuzhong Cheng , Hiroki Masuda

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

The contagion dynamics can emerge in social networks when repeated activation is allowed. An interesting example of this phenomenon is retweet cascades where users allow to re-share content posted by other people with public accounts. To…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-11-03 Zbigniew Palmowski , Daria Puchalska

We show the variational convergence of an irreversible Markov jump process describing a finite stochastic particle system to the solution of a countable infinite system of deterministic time-inhomogeneous quadratic differential equations…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Jasper Hoeksema , Chun Yin Lam , André Schlichting

This work focuses on a class of regime-switching jump diffusion processes, in which the switching component has countably infinite many states or regimes. The existence and uniqueness of the underlying process are obtained by an interlacing…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-06 Fubao Xi , Chao Zhu

We consider triangular arrays of Markov chains that converge weakly to a diffusion process. Edgeworth type expansions of third order for transition densities are proved. This is done for time horizons that converge to 0. For this purpose we…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Valentin Konakov , Enno Mammen

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Aurélien Velleret

In this paper, conditions for transience, recurrence, ergodicity and strong, subexponential (polynomial) and exponential ergodicity of a class of Feller processes are derived. The conditions are given in terms of the coefficients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-04 Nikola Sandrić

We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-03 Daniele Notarmuzi , Claudio Castellano , Alessandro Flammini , Dario Mazzilli , Filippo Radicchi

We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-07 Emmanuel Bacry , Sylvain Delattre , Marc Hoffmann , Jean François Muzy

This work introduces a self and mutually exciting point process that embeds flexible residuals and intensity with discretely Markovian dynamics. By allowing the integration of diverse residual distributions, this model serves as an…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-02 Kyungsub Lee

Let $X$ be a one dimensional positive recurrent diffusion with initial distribution $\nu$ and invariant probability $\mu$. Suppose that for some $p> 1$, $\exists a\in\R$ such that $\forall x\in\R, \E_x T_a^p<\infty$ and $\E_\nu…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-25 Dasha Loukianova , Oleg Loukianov , Eva Loecherbach

In this paper we find the transition densities of the basic affine jump-diffusion (BAJD), which is introduced by Duffie and Garleanu [D. Duffie and N. Garleanu, Risk and valuation of collateralized debt obligations, Financial Analysts…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-19 Peng Jin , Barbara Rüdiger , Chiraz Trabelsi

We study reaction-diffusion systems where diffusion is by jumps whose sizes are distributed exponentially. We first study the Fisher-like problem of propagation of a front into an unstable state, as typified by the A+B $\to$ 2A reaction. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Elisheva Cohen , David A. Kessler

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

For a class of time inhomogenous distribution dependent birth-death processes, we derive the well-posedness, $\mathbb{W}_p$-estimate, exponential ergodicity, and uniform in time propagation of chaos. These extend the corresponding results…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Feng-Yu Wang , Yi Zhao

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Xenia Miscouridou , Samir Bhatt , George Mohler , Seth Flaxman , Swapnil Mishra

In this paper, we address the problem of fitting multivariate Hawkes processes to potentially large-scale data in a setting where series of events are not only mutually-exciting but can also exhibit inhibitive patterns. We focus on…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-19 Remi Lemonnier , Nicolas Vayatis