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In this paper we provide convergence analysis for a class of Brownian queues in tandem by establishing an exponential drift condition. A consequence is the uniform exponential ergodicity for these multidimensional diffusions, including the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Wenpin Tang

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-16 Xu Wang , Mladen Kolar , Ali Shojaie

We consider a nonlinear multivariate Hawkes process having a variable length memory which allows to describe the activity of a neuronal network by its membrane potential. We propose a graphical construction of the process and we construct,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Branda Goncalves , Paul Gresland

Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-15 Cécilia Aubrun , Michael Benzaquen , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

In this paper, we study a subclass of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes with a Polish state space, involving deterministic motion punctuated by random jumps that occur at exponentially distributed time intervals. Over each of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-26 Dawid Czapla , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

This paper develops a theoretical mesoscopic model of the limit order book driven by multivariate Hawkes processes, designed to capture temporal self-excitation and the spatial propagation of order flow across price levels. In contrast to…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-25 Levon Mahseredjian

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

We consider oscillatory systems of interacting Hawkes processes introduced in Ditlevsen and Loecherbach (2017) to model multi-class systems of interacting neurons together with the diffusion approximations of their intensity processes. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Eva Löcherbach

Epilepsy is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures affecting more than 70 million people worldwide. Often, an individual with epilepsy is more likely to experience subsequent seizures following an initial seizure, a…

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-18 Lingjiong Zhu

In this article, we discuss ergodicity properties of a diffusion process given through an It\^{o} stochastic differential equation. We identify conditions on the drift and diffusion coefficients which result in sub-geometric ergodicity of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 Petra Lazić , Nikola Sandrić

We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes ("Quadratic" Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in E. Bacry et al. (2014), by allowing all feedback effects in the jump intensity that are…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-28 Pierre Blanc , Jonathan Donier , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

We consider a sequence of systems of Hawkes processes having mean field interactions in a diffusive regime. The stochastic intensity of each process is a solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by N independent Poisson random…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Xavier Erny , Eva Löcherbach , Dasha Loukianova

We show the relation between processes which are modeled by a Langevin equation with multiplicative noise and infinite ergodic theory. We concentrate on a spatially dependent diffusion coefficient that behaves as ${D(x)}\sim…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-01 N. Leibovich , E. Barkai

Aggressive behavior in autistic inpatient youth often arises in temporally clustered bursts complicating efforts to distinguish external triggers from internal escalation. The sample population branching factor-the expected number of new…

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Rafael Lima

Although an intimate relation between entropy and diffusion has been advocated for many years and even seems to have been verified in theory and experiments, a quantitatively reliable study, and any derivation of an algebraic relation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-22 Subhajit Acharya , Biman Bagchi

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-23 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji