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Many exact Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have been developed for posterior inference in Bayesian nonparametric models which involve infinite-dimensional priors. However, these methods are not generic and special methodology must be…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-22 Jim E. Griffin

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods generate samples that are asymptotically distributed from a target distribution of interest as the number of iterations goes to infinity. Various theoretical results provide upper bounds on the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-30 Niloy Biswas , Pierre E. Jacob , Paul Vanetti

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-06 Christophe Andrieu , Sinan Yıldırım , Arnaud Doucet , Nicolas Chopin

In recent decades, a number of profound theorems concerning approximation of hard counting problems have appeared. These include estimation of the permanent, estimating the volume of a convex polyhedron, and counting (approximately) the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-09-07 Isabel Beichl , Alathea Jensen

We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) methods provide a useful alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for performing inference of intractable distributions. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithms constitute a family of AIS…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-13 Soumyasundar Pal , Antonios Valkanas , Mark Coates

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-09 Adrien Corenflos , Matthew Sutton , Nicolas Chopin

Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate observables in many-body quantum systems. However, conventional sampling schemes often require a large number of samples to achieve sufficient accuracy. In this work we propose the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Wenxuan Zhang , Dingzu Wang , Dario Poletti

Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Justin Domke

We present a highly efficient proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology to perform Bayesian computation in imaging problems. Similarly to previous proximal Monte Carlo approaches, the proposed method is derived from an approximation of…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-20 Luis Vargas , Marcelo Pereyra , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-03-10 Joshua S. Speagle

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly used method for approximating expectations with respect to probability distributions. Uncertainty assessment for MCMC estimators is essential in practical applications. Moreover, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Hyebin Song , Stephen Berg

We consider Metropolis Hastings MCMC in cases where the log of the ratio of target distributions is replaced by an estimator. The estimator is based on m samples from an independent online Monte Carlo simulation. Under some conditions on…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-01 Geoff K. Nicholls , Colin Fox , Alexis Muir Watt

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-25 James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable distributions and integrals with respect to them. The origin of IS dates from the early 1950s. In the last decades, the rise of the Bayesian paradigm…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-21 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful and commonly used family of numerical methods for sampling from complex probability distributions. As applications of these methods increase in size and complexity, the need for efficient…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-01-31 Colin Cotter , Simon Cotter , Paul Russell

Evaluating expectations on an Ising model (or Boltzmann machine) is essential for various applications, including statistical machine learning. However, in general, the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-19 Muneki Yasuda , Kaiji Sekimoto