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The year 2024 witnessed a major development in the cryptocurrency industry with the long-awaited approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This innovation provides investors with a new, regulated path to gain exposure to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-04 Di Wu

We endorse the idea, suggested in recent literature, that BitCoin prices are influenced by sentiment and confidence about the underlying technology; as a consequence, an excitement about the BitCoin system may propagate to BitCoin prices…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-23 Alessandra Cretarola , Gianna Figà-Talamanca

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical…

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-13 Yanzhao Zou , Dorien Herremans

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin (BTC), which comprise a new digital asset class, have drawn extraordinary worldwide attention. The characteristics of the cryptocurrency/BTC include a high level of speculation, extreme volatility and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-24 Ai Jun Hou , Weining Wang , Cathy Y. H. Chen , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Over the last decade, the cryptocurrency market has experienced unprecedented growth, emerging as a prominent financial market. As this market rapidly evolves, it necessitates re-evaluating which cryptocurrencies command the market and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-31 Arnav Hiray , Pratvi Shah , Vishwa Shah , Agam Shah , Sudheer Chava , Mukesh Tiwari

With the increasing enrichment and development of the financial derivatives market, the frequency of transactions is also faster and faster. Due to human limitations, algorithms and automatic trading have recently become the focus of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-21 Jiashu Lou , Leyi Cui , Ye Li

The development of artificial intelligence has made significant contributions to the financial sector. One of the main interests of investors is price predictions. Technical and fundamental analyses, as well as econometric analyses, are…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-19 Asef Yelghi , Aref Yelghi , Shirmohammad Tavangari

We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-27 Olivier Scaillet , Adrien Treccani , Christopher Trevisan

Although Bitcoin was intended to be a decentralized digital currency, in practice, mining power is quite concentrated. This fact is a persistent source of concern for the Bitcoin community. We provide an explanation using a simple model to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-11-22 Nick Arnosti , S. Matthew Weinberg

The rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market presents unique challenges for investment due to its inherent volatility and evolving regulatory environment. Collective price movements can be exploited to construct diversified portfolios with…

Popular Physics · Physics 2026-05-01 Ruixue Jing , Ryota Kobayashi , Luis Enrique Correa Rocha

Since its advent in 2009, Bitcoin, a cryptography-enabled peer-to-peer digital payment system, has been gaining increasing attention from both academia and industry. An effort designed to overcome a cluster of bottlenecks inherent in…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Ling Cheng , Feida Zhu , Huiwen Liu , Chunyan Miao

Transaction fee prediction in Bitcoin's ecosystem represents a crucial challenge affecting both user costs and miner revenue optimization. This study presents a systematic evaluation of six predictive models for forecasting Bitcoin…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Jiangqin Ma , Erfan Mahmoudinia

A stock market is considered as one of the highly complex systems, which consists of many components whose prices move up and down without having a clear pattern. The complex nature of a stock market challenges us on making a reliable…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-09-27 Minjun Kim , Hiroki Sayama

Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-31 Stavros Stavroyiannis

Digital currencies represent a new method for exchange and investment that differs strongly from any other fiat money seen throughout history. A digital currency makes it possible to perform all financial transactions without the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2015-03-11 Xianyi Gao , Gradeigh D. Clark , Janne Lindqvist

In this note, we compare Bitcoin trading performance using two machine learning models-Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-and two technical analysis-based strategies: Exponential Moving Average…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-04 José Ángel Islas Anguiano , Andrés García-Medina

This research aims to identify how Bitcoin-related news publications and online discourse are expressed in Bitcoin exchange movements of price and volume. Being inherently digital, all Bitcoin-related fundamental data (from exchanges, as…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-09 Marvin Aron Kennis

We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Chongyang Bai , Tommy White , Linda Xiao , V. S. Subrahmanian , Ziheng Zhou

This paper will propose a novel machine learning based portfolio management method in the context of the cryptocurrency market. Previous researchers mainly focus on the prediction of the movement for specific cryptocurrency such as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Zijiang Yang