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Low-order thermoacoustic models are qualitatively correct, but they are typically quantitatively inaccurate. We propose a time-domain bias-aware method to make qualitatively low--order models quantitatively (more) accurate. First, we…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-11-10 Andrea Nóvoa , Luca Magri

Reduced-order models of flame dynamics can be used to predict and mitigate the emergence of thermoacoustic oscillations in the design of gas turbine and rocket engines. This process is hindered by the fact that these models, although often…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-07-07 Hans Yu , Matthew P. Juniper , Luca Magri

Data assimilation (DA) provides a general framework for estimation in dynamical systems based on the concepts of Bayesian inference. This constitutes a common basis for the different linear and nonlinear filtering and smoothing techniques…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-08 Tarek Diaa-Eldeen , Marcus Krogh Nielsen , Carl Fredrik Berg , Morten Hovd , John Bagterp Jørgensen

This study focuses on the Rijke tube problem, which includes features relevant to the modeling of thermoacoustic coupling in reactive flows: a compact acoustic source, an empirical model for the heat source, and nonlinearities. This…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-08-21 Taraneh Sayadi , Vincent Le Chenadec , Peter Schmid , Franck Richecoeur , Marc Massot

We introduce a data assimilation strategy aimed at accurately capturing key non-Gaussian structures in probability distributions using a small ensemble size. A major challenge in statistical forecasting of nonlinearly coupled multiscale…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

Data Assimilation is the process in which we improve the representation of the state of a physical system by combining information coming from a numerical model, real-world observations, and some prior modelling. It is widely used to model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-09 Victor Trappler , Arthur Vidard

Data assimilation refers to the process of obtaining an estimate of a system's state using a model for the system's time evolution and a time series of measurements that are possibly noisy and incomplete. However, for practical reasons, the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Matthew Cornick , Brian Hunt , Edward Ott , Michael F. Schatz

This paper considers the ill-posed data assimilation problem associated with hyperbolic/parabolic systems describing 2D coupled sound and heat flow. Given hypothetical data at time T > 0, that may not correspond to an actual solution of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Alfred S. Carasso

Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Brian R. Hunt , Eric J. Kostelich , Istvan Szunyogh

The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the time the forecast is initialized. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Michael McCabe , Jed Brown

The thermal management of cryogenic storage tanks requires advanced control strategies to minimize the boil-off losses produced by heat leakages and sloshing-enhanced heat and mass transfer. This work presents a data-assimilation approach…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-04-02 Pedro Afonso Marques , Samuel Ahizi , Miguel Alfonso Mendez

A thermal convection loop is a circular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, forming an…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Andrew J. Reagan

Many dynamical systems are difficult or impossible to model using high fidelity physics based models. Consequently, researchers are relying more on data driven models to make predictions and forecasts. Based on limited training data,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-04-09 Max M. Chumley , Firas A. Khasawneh

Continuous data assimilation addresses time-dependent problems with unknown initial conditions by incorporating observations of the solution into a nudging term. For the prototypical heat equation with variable conductivity and the Neumann…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Vladimir Yushutin

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-08 Amit N. Subrahmanya , Andrey A. Popov , Reid J. Gomillion , Adrian Sandu

Data assimilation (DA) aims at forecasting the state of a dynamical system by combining a mathematical representation of the system with noisy observations taking into account their uncertainties. State of the art methods are based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Pierre Boudier , Anthony Fillion , Serge Gratton , Selime Gürol , Sixin Zhang

Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. The associated sensitivity to initial conditions is a significant obstacle in forecasting the weather and other geophysical fluid flows. Data assimilation is the process whereby the uncertainty in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-03 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Jonathan Demaeyer , Colin Grudzien , Patrick Raanes , Stephane Vannitsem

In many practical scenarios, the dynamical system is not available and standard data assimilation methods are not applicable. Our objective is to construct a data-driven model for state estimation without the underlying dynamics. Instead of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Ziyi Wang , Lijian Jiang

Data assimilation algorithms estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations, where the successful performance of these algorithms hinges on costly parameter tuning and on employing an accurate model for the dynamics.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Melissa Adrian , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Rebecca Willett

Data assimilation is uniquely challenging in weather forecasting due to the high dimensionality of the employed models and the nonlinearity of the governing equations. Although current operational schemes are used successfully, our…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-05-09 Lea Oljača , Jochen Bröcker , Tobias Kuna
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