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We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-27 Katerina Papagiannouli , Dario Trevisan , Giuseppe Pio Zitto

How to sample high quality negative instances from unlabeled data, i.e., negative sampling, is important for training implicit collaborative filtering and contrastive learning models. Although previous studies have proposed some approaches…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Bin Liu , Bang Wang

The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this…

Bayesian Last Layers (BLLs) provide a convenient and computationally efficient way to estimate uncertainty in neural networks. However, they underestimate epistemic uncertainty because they apply a Bayesian treatment only to the final…

Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-03 Hao Wang , Xingjian Shi , Dit-Yan Yeung

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

Scientific machine learning has been successfully applied to inverse problems and PDE discovery in computational physics. One caveat concerning current methods is the need for large amounts of ("clean") data, in order to characterize the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-30 Christophe Bonneville , Christopher J. Earls

Tensor Network (TN) Kernel Machines speed up model learning by representing parameters as low-rank TNs, reducing computation and memory use. However, most TN-based Kernel methods are deterministic and ignore parameter uncertainty. Further,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-16 Afra Kilic , Kim Batselier

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

Modern practice for training classification deepnets involves a Terminal Phase of Training (TPT), which begins at the epoch where training error first vanishes; During TPT, the training error stays effectively zero while training loss is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-23 Vardan Papyan , X. Y. Han , David L. Donoho

We study probabilistic safety for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) under adversarial input perturbations. Given a compact set of input points, $T \subseteq \mathbb{R}^m$, we study the probability w.r.t. the BNN posterior that all the points…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Andrea Patane , Marta Kwiatkowska

Existing Bayesian treatments of neural networks are typically characterized by weak prior and approximate posterior distributions according to which all the weights are drawn independently. Here, we consider a richer prior distribution in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-02 Theofanis Karaletsos , Peter Dayan , Zoubin Ghahramani

Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-11 Adam D. Cobb , Stephen J. Roberts , Yarin Gal

Deep neural networks can be effective means to automatically classify aerial images but is easy to overfit to the training data. It is critical for trained neural networks to be robust to variations that exist between training and test…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-09-25 Jiayun Wang , Patrick Virtue , Stella X. Yu

We propose a neural network approach to produce probabilistic weather forecasts from a deterministic numerical weather prediction. Our approach is applied to operational surface temperature outputs from the Global Deterministic Prediction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-07 David Landry , Anastase Charantonis , Claire Monteleoni

We consider deep neural networks in a Bayesian framework with a prior distribution sampling the network weights at random. Following a recent idea of Agapiou and Castillo (2023), who show that heavy-tailed prior distributions achieve…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-16 Ismaël Castillo , Paul Egels

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

Modern deep learning models have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for many data modalities. However, their application to many real-world tasks is restricted by poor uncertainty estimates, such as overconfidence on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Ben Adlam , Jaehoon Lee , Lechao Xiao , Jeffrey Pennington , Jasper Snoek

The asymptotic properties of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been extensively studied, particularly regarding their approximations by Gaussian processes in the infinite-width limit. We extend these results by showing that posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Francesco Caporali , Stefano Favaro , Dario Trevisan

Nested sampling (NS) computes parameter posterior distributions and makes Bayesian model comparison computationally feasible. Its strengths are the unsupervised navigation of complex, potentially multi-modal posteriors until a well-defined…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-11 Johannes Buchner
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