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The Bayesian predictive density has complex representation and does not belong to any finite-dimensional statistical model except for in limited situations. In this paper, we introduce its simple approximate representation employing its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-30 Michiko Okudo , Fumiyasu Komaki

We investigate predictive densities for multivariate normal models with unknown mean vectors and known covariance matrices. Bayesian predictive densities based on shrinkage priors often have complex representations, although they are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-08 Michiko Okudo , Fumiyasu Komaki

Recently, the Wasserstein loss function has been proven to be effective when applied to deterministic full-waveform inversion (FWI) problems. We consider the application of this loss function in Bayesian FWI so that the uncertainty can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-20 Matthew M. Dunlop , Yunan Yang

Optimal transport maps between two probability distributions $\mu$ and $\nu$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ have found extensive applications in both machine learning and statistics. In practice, these maps need to be estimated from data sampled…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-06 Nabarun Deb , Promit Ghosal , Bodhisattva Sen

We present a Bayesian framework based on a new exponential likelihood function driven by the quadratic Wasserstien metric. Compared to conventional Bayesian models based on Gaussian likelihood functions driven by the least-squares norm…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-31 Mohammad Motamed , Daniel Appelo

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides a principled framework for selecting observations or experiments. We introduce new Bayesian design criteria based on the expected Wasserstein-$p$ distance between the prior and posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tapio Helin , Youssef Marzouk , Jose Rodrigo Rojo-Garcia

We consider estimating the predictive density under Kullback-Leibler loss in an $\ell_0$ sparse Gaussian sequence model. Explicit expressions of the first order minimax risk along with its exact constant, asymptotically least favorable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Gourab Mukherjee , Iain M. Johnstone

In Wasserstein geometry, one-dimensional location-scale models are flat both intrinsically and extrinsically-that is, they are curvature-free as well as totally geodesic in the space of probability distributions. In this study, we introduce…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Ayumu Fukushi , Yoshinori Nakanishi-Ohno , Takeru Matsuda

Data consisting of time-indexed distributions of cross-sectional or intraday returns have been extensively studied in finance, and provide one example in which the data atoms consist of serially dependent probability distributions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Chao Zhang , Piotr Kokoszka , Alexander Petersen

We introduce a novel and scalable Bayesian framework for multivariate-density-density regression (DDR), designed to model relationships between multivariate distributions. Our approach addresses the critical issue of distributions residing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Khai Nguyen , Yang Ni , Peter Mueller

We investigate Bayesian shrinkage methods for constructing predictive distributions. We consider the multivariate Normal model with a known covariance matrix and show that the Bayesian predictive density with respect to Stein's harmonic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Yuzo Maruyama , Toshio Ohnishi

The Bayesian approach to the prediction of particle type given measurements of particle location is explored, using a parametric model whose prior is based on the transformation group. Two types of particle are considered, and locations are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-06-17 Robert W. Johnson

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-09-23 Yang Xing

Suppose $X_1,\dots, X_n$ is a random sample from a bounded and decreasing density $f_0$ on $[0,\infty)$. We are interested in estimating such $f_0$, with special interest in $f_0(0)$. This problem is encountered in various statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-14 Geurt Jongbloed , Frank van der Meulen , Lixue Pang

We propose a general purpose Bayesian inference algorithm for expensive likelihoods, replacing the stochastic term in the Langevin equation with a deterministic density gradient term. The particle density is evaluated from the current…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-14 Richard D. P. Grumitt , Biwei Dai , Uros Seljak

We consider a generalization of the classifier-based density-ratio estimation task to a quasiprobabilistic setting where probability densities can be negative. The problem with most loss functions used for this task is that they implicitly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-24 Matthew Drnevich , Stephen Jiggins , Kyle Cranmer

We study the Bayesian density estimation of data living in the offset of an unknown submanifold of the Euclidean space. In this perspective, we introduce a new notion of anisotropic H\"older for the underlying density and obtain posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-18 Clément Berenfeld , Paul Rosa , Judith Rousseau

We study nonparametric density estimation problems where error is measured in the Wasserstein distance, a metric on probability distributions popular in many areas of statistics and machine learning. We give the first minimax-optimal rates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Jonathan Niles-Weed , Quentin Berthet

Grouped data are commonly encountered in applications. The Bernstein polynomial model is proposed as an approximate model in this paper for estimating a univariate density function based on grouped data. The coefficients of the Bernstein…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-21 Zhong Guan

We introduce and study a novel model-selection strategy for Bayesian learning, based on optimal transport, along with its associated predictive posterior law: the Wasserstein population barycenter of the posterior law over models. We first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Julio Backhoff-Veraguas , Joaquin Fontbona , Gonzalo Rios , Felipe Tobar