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Related papers: Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning

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For classification models based on neural networks, the maximum predicted class probability is often used as a confidence score. This score rarely predicts well the probability of making a correct prediction and requires a post-processing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Adrien LeCoz , Stéphane Herbin , Faouzi Adjed

Probabilistic classifiers output confidence scores along with their predictions, and these confidence scores should be calibrated, i.e., they should reflect the reliability of the prediction. Confidence scores that minimize standard metrics…

Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Victor Dheur , Souhaib Ben Taieb

In the field of medical image analysis, achieving high accuracy is not enough; ensuring well-calibrated predictions is also crucial. Confidence scores of a deep neural network play a pivotal role in explainability by providing insights into…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Abhishek Singh Sambyal , Usma Niyaz , Narayanan C. Krishnan , Deepti R. Bathula

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Mariella Dreissig , Florian Piewak , Joschka Boedecker

Understanding the confidence with which a machine learning model classifies an input datum is an important, and perhaps under-investigated, concept. In this paper, we propose a new calibration metric, the Entropic Calibration Difference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Daniel James Sumler , Lee Devlin , Simon Maskell , Richard O. Lane

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Charles Marx , Sofian Zalouk , Stefano Ermon

Miscalibration in deep learning refers to there is a discrepancy between the predicted confidence and performance. This problem usually arises due to the overfitting problem, which is characterized by learning everything presented in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Zongbo Han , Yifeng Yang , Changqing Zhang , Linjun Zhang , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Qinghua Hu

Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wenjian Huang , Guiping Cao , Jiahao Xia , Jingkun Chen , Hao Wang , Jianguo Zhang

Trustworthy classifiers are essential to the adoption of machine learning predictions in many real-world settings. The predicted probability of possible outcomes can inform high-stakes decision making, particularly when assessing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Kiri L. Wagstaff , Thomas G. Dietterich

For an AI system to be reliable, the confidence it expresses in its decisions must match its accuracy. To assess the degree of match, examples are typically binned by confidence and the per-bin mean confidence and accuracy are compared.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-14 Rebecca Roelofs , Nicholas Cain , Jonathon Shlens , Michael C. Mozer

As large language models attract increasing attention and find widespread application, concurrent challenges of reliability also arise at the same time. Confidence calibration, an effective analysis method for gauging the reliability of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Chiwei Zhu , Benfeng Xu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Confidence calibration is a major concern when applying artificial neural networks in safety-critical applications. Since most research in this area has focused on classification in the past, confidence calibration in the scope of object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Franziska Schwaiger , Maximilian Henne , Fabian Küppers , Felippe Schmoeller Roza , Karsten Roscher , Anselm Haselhoff

Deep metric learning has gained promising improvement in recent years following the success of deep learning. It has been successfully applied to problems in few-shot learning, image retrieval, and open-set classifications. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Maryna Karpusha , Sunghee Yun , Istvan Fehervari

The black box nature of deep learning models complicate their usage in critical applications such as remote sensing. Conformal prediction is a method to ensure trust in such scenarios. Subject to data exchangeability, conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Protim Bhattacharjee , Peter Jung

Deep neural networks have been shown to be highly miscalibrated. often they tend to be overconfident in their predictions. It poses a significant challenge for safety-critical systems to utilise deep neural networks (DNNs), reliably. Many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Aditya Singh , Alessandro Bay , Biswa Sengupta , Andrea Mirabile