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The influence of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) on the price process is explored with the help of a simple model. CTA managers are taken to be Kelly optimisers, which invest a fixed proportion of their assets in the risky asset and the…
We investigate modifications to Bayesian Optimization for a resource-constrained setting of sequential experimental design where changes to certain design variables of the search space incur a switching cost. This models the scenario where…
Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…
Tensor Robust Principal Component Analysis (TRPCA) holds a crucial position in machine learning and computer vision. It aims to recover underlying low-rank structures and to characterize the sparse structures of noise. Current approaches…
We study how transaction cost affects to the equilibrium return and optimal stock holdings in equilibrium. To this end, we develop a continuous-time risk-sharing model where heterogenous agents trade toward terminal target holdings subject…
Empirically, the PAC-Bayesian analysis is known to produce tight risk bounds for practical machine learning algorithms. However, in its naive form, it can only deal with stochastic predictors while such predictors are rarely used and…
The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…
We propose a general approximation method for determining optimal trading strategies in markets with proportional transaction costs, with a polynomial approximation of the residual value function. The method is exemplified by several…
It can be challenging to perform an integrative statistical analysis of multi-view high-dimensional data acquired from different experiments on each subject who participated in a joint study. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a…
The notion of expense in Bayesian optimisation generally refers to the uniformly expensive cost of function evaluations over the whole search space. However, in some scenarios, the cost of evaluation for black-box objective functions is…
Portfolio managers' orders trade off return and trading cost predictions. Return predictions rely on alpha models, whereas price impact models quantify trading costs. This paper studies what happens when trades are based on an incorrect…
Price benchmarks are used to incorporate market price trends into contracts, but their use can create opportunities for manipulation by parties involved in the contract. This paper examines this issue using a realistic and tractable model…
Principal components analysis (PCA) is a well-known technique for approximating a tabular data set by a low rank matrix. Here, we extend the idea of PCA to handle arbitrary data sets consisting of numerical, Boolean, categorical, ordinal,…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a class of global optimization algorithms, suitable for minimizing an expensive objective function in as few function evaluations as possible. While BO budgets are typically given in iterations, this implicitly…
We use an adversarial expert based online learning algorithm to learn the optimal parameters required to maximise wealth trading zero-cost portfolio strategies. The learning algorithm is used to determine the relative population dynamics of…
Bitcoin, as one of the most popular cryptocurrency, is recently attracting much attention of investors. Bitcoin price prediction task is consequently a rising academic topic for providing valuable insights and suggestions. Existing bitcoin…
We study risk-sharing economies where heterogenous agents trade subject to quadratic transaction costs. The corresponding equilibrium asset prices and trading strategies are characterised by a system of nonlinear, fully-coupled…
Building a machine learning solution in real-life applications often involves the decomposition of the problem into multiple models of various complexity. This has advantages in terms of overall performance, better interpretability of the…
We study the combinatorial assignment domain, which includes combinatorial auctions and course allocation. The main challenge in this domain is that the bundle space grows exponentially in the number of items. To address this, several…
This paper examines the role of algorithmic trading in modern financial markets. Additionally, order types, characteristics, and special features of algorithmic trading are described under the lens provided by the large development of high…