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We extend the theoretical framework of proof mining by establishing general logical metatheorems that allow for the extraction of the computational content of theorems with prima facie "non-computational" proofs from probability theory,…

Logic · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Morenikeji Neri , Nicholas Pischke

The probability of an event is in the range of [0, 1]. In a sample space S, the value of probability determines whether an outcome is true or false. The probability of an event Pr(A) that will never occur = 0. The probability of the event…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma , Safiya Al Sharji , Maruf Raheem

Many measurements at collider experiments study physics candidates that are a subset of a collision event. The presence of multiple such candidates in a given event can cause raw biases which are large compared to typical statistical…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2019-08-22 Patrick Koppenburg

The estimated accuracy of a classifier is a random quantity with variability. A common practice in supervised machine learning, is thus to test if the estimated accuracy is significantly better than chance level. This method of signal…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-28 Jonathan D. Rosenblatt , Yuval Benjamini , Roee Gilron , Roy Mukamel , Jelle J. Goeman

We propose a new testing procedure of heteroskedasticity in high-dimensional linear regression, where the number of covariates can be larger than the sample size. Our testing procedure is based on residuals of the Lasso. We demonstrate that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-01 Akira Shinkyu

In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-03 Maren Mahsereci , Philipp Hennig

In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-19 Maren Mahsereci , Philipp Hennig

The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical theory that can be used as a foundation for statistics that include improper priors. This theory includes improper laws in the initial axioms and has in particular Bayes theorem as a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-11 Gunnar Taraldsen , Bo H. Lindqvist

Studies to compare the survival of two or more groups using time-to-event data are of high importance in medical research. The gold standard is the log-rank test, which is optimal under proportional hazards. As the latter is no simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Ina Dormuth , Tiantian Liu , Jin Xu , Markus Pauly , Marc Ditzhaus

In this paper a robust version of the classical Wald test statistics for linear hypothesis in the logistic regression model is introduced and its properties are explored. We study the problem under the assumption of random covariates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-09 Ayandrendanath Basu , Abhik Ghosh , Abhijit Mandal , Nirian Martin , Leandro Pardo

Null hypothesis significance testing remains popular despite decades of concern about misuse and misinterpretation. We believe that much of the problem is due to language: significance testing has little to do with other meanings of the…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-10-16 Jonathan Dushoff , Morgan P. Kain , Benjamin M. Bolker

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

There is a third way of implementing probability models and practicing. This is to answer questions put in terms of observables. This eliminates frequentist hypothesis testing and Bayes factors and it also eliminates parameter estimation.…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2015-08-12 William M. Briggs

Statistical hypothesis testing and effect size measurement are routine parts of quantitative research. Advancements in computer processing power have greatly improved the capability of statistical inference through the availability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 Michael J. Crosse , John J. Foxe , Sophie Molholm

Combining distributions is an important issue in decision theory and Bayesian inference. Logarithmic pooling is a popular method to aggregate expert opinions by using a set of weights that reflect the reliability of each information source.…

Probabilistic programming methods have revolutionised Bayesian inference, making it easier than ever for practitioners to perform Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo sampling from non-conjugate posterior distributions. Here we focus on Stan, arguably…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-10 Clemens Pichler , Jack Jewson , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco

Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Thomas J. Loredo , Robert L. Wolpert

Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert output from numerical weather forecasting systems (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts for binary events. A logistic model obtains by putting the logarithmic odds ratio…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-01-29 Jochen Bröcker

Statistical dependence between hypotheses poses a significant challenge to the stability of large scale multiple hypotheses testing. Ignoring it often results in an unacceptably large spread in the false positive proportion even though the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-15 Sairam Rayaprolu , Zhiyi Chi

Ratios of universal enumerable semimeasures corresponding to hypotheses are investigated as a solution for statistical composite hypotheses testing if an unbounded amount of computation time can be assumed. Influence testing for discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-15 Bruno Bauwens