English
Related papers

Related papers: Counterfactual Sensitivity and Robustness

200 papers

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

We present a general framework for evaluating image counterfactuals. The power and flexibility of deep generative models make them valuable tools for learning mechanisms in structural causal models. However, their flexibility makes…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Miguel Monteiro , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Nick Pawlowski , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

A finite dimensional abstract approximation and convergence theory is developed for estimation of the distribution of random parameters in infinite dimensional discrete time linear systems with dynamics described by regularly dissipative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-15 Melike Sirlanci , Susan E. Luczak , I. Gary Rosen

Estimating the distribution of outcomes under counterfactual policies is critical for decision-making in domains such as recommendation, advertising, and healthcare. We propose and analyze a novel framework-Counterfactual Policy Mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-29 Houssam Zenati , Bariscan Bozkurt , Arthur Gretton

Latent-space optimization methods for counterfactual explanations - framed as minimal semantic perturbations that change model predictions - inherit the ambiguity of Wachter et al.'s objective: the choice of distance metric dictates whether…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Eslam Zaher , Maciej Trzaskowski , Quan Nguyen , Fred Roosta

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-07 Irene Botosaru , Chris Muris

The adoption of increasingly complex deep models has fueled an urgent need for insight into how these models make predictions. Counterfactual explanations form a powerful tool for providing actionable explanations to practitioners.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Paraskevas Pegios , Aasa Feragen , Andreas Abildtrup Hansen , Georgios Arvanitidis

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-04 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Dino Sejdinovic

Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-10 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Suchi Saria

Conditional estimation given specific covariate values (i.e., local conditional estimation or functional estimation) is ubiquitously useful with applications in engineering, social and natural sciences. Existing data-driven non-parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Viet Anh Nguyen , Fan Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Erick Delage , Yinyu Ye

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Peng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Yan Zeng , Jiawei Chen , Yang Liu , Ruocheng Guo , Kun Zhang

This paper considers structural optimization under a reliability constraint, where the input distribution is only partially known. Specifically, when we only know that the expected value vector and the variance-covariance matrix of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-19 Yoshihiro Kanno

We address counterfactual analysis in empirical models of games with partially identified parameters, and multiple equilibria and/or randomized strategies, by constructing and analyzing the counterfactual predictive distribution set (CPDS).…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-17 Brendan Kline , Elie Tamer

This article aims to introduce the paradigm of distributional robustness from the field of convex optimization to tackle optimal design problems under uncertainty. We consider realistic situations where the physical model, and thereby the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-30 Charles Dapogny , Julien Prando , Boris Thibert

In recent years, diffusion models, and more generally score-based deep generative models, have achieved remarkable success in various applications, including image and audio generation. In this paper, we view diffusion models as an implicit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Hyeok Kyu Kwon , Dongha Kim , Ilsang Ohn , Minwoo Chae

Counterfactual examples are one of the most commonly-cited methods for explaining the predictions of machine learning models in key areas such as finance and medical diagnosis. Counterfactuals are often discussed under the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Emily Black , Zifan Wang , Matt Fredrikson , Anupam Datta

We give a method for proactively identifying small, plausible shifts in distribution which lead to large differences in model performance. These shifts are defined via parametric changes in the causal mechanisms of observed variables, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Nikolaj Thams , Michael Oberst , David Sontag

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Edward H. Kennedy

Visual counterfactual explanations are ideal hypothetical images that change the decision-making of the classifier with high confidence toward the desired class while remaining visually plausible and close to the initial image. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Tung Luu , Nam Le , Duc Le , Bac Le

This paper studies optimal estimation of large-dimensional nonlinear factor models. The key challenge is that the observed variables are possibly nonlinear functions of some latent variables where the functional forms are left unspecified.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Yingjie Feng